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Chips Picks

@ChipsPicks_428 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 3 h before start

💻 Software Engineer ⚾️ Free MLB Plays, Recapped Daily 🤝 Helping Bettors Actually Win 📈MLB 2025: +25.32u, mlb 2026: +24.46u

Baseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.5#285 on the leaderboarddown 19 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.7%
expected 49.6%
Edge
+1.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
70
35-34-1
ROI
+0.8%
on 64 picks with odds · max drawdown −12.91 u
Average odds
1.96
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2031 Jul19 Aug7 Sept26 Sept15 Oct

By sport

Baseball35-34-1 · 70 graded
+1.1
51%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result26-25 · 51 graded
+2.0
51%
Totals9-7 · 16 graded
+4.2
56%
Handicap0-2-1 · 3 graded
−46.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+25.9
100%
Even31-33-1 · 65 graded
−1.5
48%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+37.0
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8912-13 · 25 graded
−13.9%
48%
1.90…2.2918-15 · 33 graded
+7.6%
55%
2.30…3.493-3 · 6 graded
+25.0%
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −11.3 pp
    17-27-1 · 39%
    ROI −25.0%
  • September 2026
    +21.9 pp
    15-6 · 71%
    ROI +44.9%
  • October 2026
    +28.2 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 16 Oct, 18:39 · 5 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itVoid
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:54 · 6 min before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 19:34 · 4 h before start
odds 2.50Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 18:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 18:05 · 6 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 15:27 · 8 h before start
odds 1.94Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
1:12
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 19:27 · 3 h before start
odds 2.50Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
0:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 17:26 · 7 h before start
odds 1.93Won
MLB·
Texas Rangers
2:7
New York Mets
New York Mets to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 17:17 · 6 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
5:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 23:14 · 3 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
7:0
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 21:47 · 1 h before start
odds 2.12Won
MLB·
New York Yankees
1:6
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.12
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.12 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 04:04 · 19 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
2:3
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 17:29 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
San Diego Padres
7:6
Miami Marlins
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.91 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 20:38 · 3 h before start
Won
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
5:3
Athletics
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 74% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 21:10 · 3 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB·
Texas Rangers
4:2
Boston Red Sox
Texas Rangers to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 21:03 · 2 h before start
odds 2.30Lost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
7:6
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.30
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 16:49 · 7 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
3:6
Atlanta Braves
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 20:09 · 3 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
5:6
Chicago White Sox
St. Louis Cardinals to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 20:15 · 3 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
20:0
Cincinnati Reds
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.87 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 20:09 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
6:4
New York Mets
Under 8.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 8 Sept, 21:25 · 2 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
4:3
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 12:22 · 11 h before start
odds 2.01Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
1:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.01
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.01 u
Singleposted 7 Sept, 01:57 · 12 min before start
odds 1.93DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
7:5
Washington Nationals
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.93 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
2:3
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 04:10 · 19 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
3:4
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 21:45 · 54 min before start
odds 1.76Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
6:2
New York Mets
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 20:37 · 2 h before start
Push
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
9:8
Seattle Mariners
Boston Red Sox −1
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 31 Aug, 20:34 · 2 h before start
odds 1.98Lost
MLB·
Washington Nationals
6:3
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Aug, 13:39 · 6 h before start
odds 1.84Lost
MLB·
New York Mets
3:6
Houston Astros
New York Mets to win@1.84
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Aug, 13:31 · 4 h before start
odds 2.52Lost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:4
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win@2.52
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u