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Trust Me Bro Betz

@TrustMeBroBetz49 followersfirst pick 23 Augusually posts 3 h before start

Just a dude throwing in bets | Every bet I post is a real bet I play | No extra VIP bullshit | DM me and I’ll post your plays

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyTennisFootball
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Tipster index51.6#285 on the leaderboarddown 24 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
43.5%
expected 42.6%
Edge
+0.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 37.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
148
64-83-1
ROI
+2.1%
on 92 picks with odds · max drawdown −10.44 u
Average odds
2.01
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20222 Aug5 Sept18 Sept2 Oct16 Oct

By sport

Baseball44-51 · 95 graded
+4.2
46%
NFL & NCAAF17-28-1 · 46 graded
−6.4
38%
Hockey1-4 · 5 graded
−17.0
20%
Football1-0 · 1 graded
+52.4
100%
Tennis1-0 · 1 graded
+60.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays21-37 · 58 graded
+2.2
36%
Match result20-22 · 42 graded
+0.6
48%
Totals16-8 · 24 graded
+15.2
67%
Handicap5-15-1 · 21 graded
−23.8
25%
Team totals2-1 · 3 graded
+32.7
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-2 · 5 graded
−4.7
60%
Even39-38-1 · 78 graded
+2.1
51%
Underdog1-6 · 7 graded
−18.2
14%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.8912-12-1 · 25 graded
−9.0%
50%
1.90…2.2924-24 · 48 graded
+1.5%
50%
2.30…3.494-7 · 11 graded
−14.2%
36%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +2.2 pp
    9-15 · 38%
    ROI +81.7%
  • September 2026
    −1.0 pp
    42-55 · 43%
    ROI −12.7%
  • October 2026
    +7.1 pp
    13-13-1 · 50%
    ROI +5.4%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 15 Oct, 20:39 · 3 h before start
odds 2.32Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.32
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.32 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:27 · 3 min before start
odds 2.05Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:7
St. Louis Blues
Ottawa Senators to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:17 · 43 min before start
odds 1.77Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 22:17 · 2 h before start
odds 1.97Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Parlay · 3posted 11 Oct, 16:03 · 57 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans −2.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers +10.5✓
Open on Xexpected 13% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
odds 2.20Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 19:30 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
1:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 17:30 · 25 h before start
odds 2.38Won
ATP Challenger · Villena, Spain·
Daniel Rincon
0:2
Pedro Martinez
Over 12.5 games@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.38 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 14:46 · 5 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
3:9
Cleveland Guardians
Chicago White Sox to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 20:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 18:20 · 4 h before start
odds 2.31Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@2.31
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.31 u
Parlay · 2posted 6 Oct, 16:30 · 8 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
4:2
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
1:2
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win✓
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 15:24 · 8 h before start
odds 2.10Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:5
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 19:00 · 5 h before start
odds 2.02Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.02
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.02 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:09 · 6 h before start
odds 1.96Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
5:2
New York Yankees
Under 6.5@1.96
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 16:30 · 5 h before start
odds 2.29Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.29
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.29 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
26:29
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills −7@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers −3@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
30:34
Dallas Cowboys
Houston Texans −3@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 2.20Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
36:24
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals −2.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 3 h before start
odds 2.54Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
23:12
New York Jets
New York Jets to win@2.54
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 13:38 · 7 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Over 47.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 12:59 · 30 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts −4.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Parlay · 3posted 3 Oct, 13:09 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
38:14
Vanderbilt Commodores
Over 45.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
34:35
Kentucky Wildcats
Over 48.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
13:41
Miami Hurricanes
Over 43.5✓
Open on Xexpected 30% by model
Parlay · 3posted 1 Oct, 22:15 · 3 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
6:0
Chicago Blackhawks
Utah Mammoth to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
7:9
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
4:3
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 20:11 · 3 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:2
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 19:00 · 2 h before start
odds 2.08Won
MLB · post-season·
Houston Astros
3:6
Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox to win@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds+1.08 u
Singleposted 27 Sept, 16:02 · 58 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
33:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −8.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u