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OG Picks USA🇺🇸

@CappersOG1.1K followersfirst pick 4 Augusually posts 2 h before start

🔥=ON FIRE 📈=ON STREAK 📉=TRASH NEW LINK ⬇️⬇️⬇️

BaseballNFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketballTennis
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Tipster index56.6#173 on the leaderboardup 39 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
57.8%
expected 54.0%
Edge
+3.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 51.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
174
100-73-1
ROI
−2.3%
on 140 picks with odds · max drawdown −18.30 u
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W8, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

02.557.53 Aug24 Aug15 Sept7 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Baseball77-58 · 135 graded
+3.8
57%
NFL & NCAAF15-9-1 · 25 graded
+5.7
63%
Hockey5-4 · 9 graded
−1.8
56%
Basketball3-2 · 5 graded
+6.0
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result61-46 · 107 graded
+2.8
57%
Handicap33-21-1 · 55 graded
+4.6
61%
Totals3-4 · 7 graded
−7.1
43%
Parlays3-2 · 5 graded
+33.1
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite20-12 · 32 graded
−1.0
63%
Even76-58-1 · 135 graded
+3.8
57%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.7
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
1.50…1.8958-48-1 · 107 graded
−7.0%
55%
1.90…2.2916-12 · 28 graded
+13.8%
57%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +14.0 pp
    40-20 · 67%
    ROI +15.7%
  • September 2026
    −2.6 pp
    38-36-1 · 51%
    ROI −9.6%
  • October 2026
    +0.6 pp
    22-17 · 56%
    ROI −13.7%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:50 · 1 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
New Mexico State Aggies
0:24
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Jacksonville State Gamecocks to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 20:48 · 4 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
New Jersey Devils
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 22:35 · 1 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:30 · 5 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:31 · 44 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles +6.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:28 · 2 h before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.44 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 20:18 · 3 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
127:125
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 23:38 · 21 min before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays +1.5
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 22:22 · 37 min before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
93:115
Minnesota Timberwolves
Orlando Magic to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 22:19 · 41 min before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:17 · 2 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
93:115
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.02 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:17 · 3 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.53 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 18:11 · 3 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:51 · 39 min before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 22:51 · 39 min before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:11 · 49 min before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
3:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
penalties
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 22:11 · 49 min before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:1
New York Rangers
Washington Capitals to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:06 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:5
Anaheim Ducks
Winnipeg Jets to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 21:05 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Louisville Cardinals −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 23:40 · 34 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
16:24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:43 · 5 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Chicago White Sox
5:9
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 18:42 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UTSA Roadrunners
31:24
South Florida Bulls
UTSA Roadrunners −6.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 21:37 · 22 min before start
odds 1.68DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves +1.5
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 18:55 · 5 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 23:26 · 2 h before start
odds 2.19DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 21:34 · 4 h before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 21:32 · 28 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 23:45 · 29 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
New Orleans Saints to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:56 · 1 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
5:0
San Jose Sharks
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.45 u