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A3RBET 🔎 Analysis Picks 📊

@A3RBET4.7K followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 2 h before start

11+ year sports analyst | Data-driven picks across Football, Tennis, NBA, NHL, AFL, NRL, UFC | Edge over emotion | Track record speaks

TennisFootballBasketballNFL & NCAAFBaseballHockey
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Tipster index47.8#416 on the leaderboarddown 64 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
55.7%
expected 57.4%
Edge
−1.7 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 45.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
61
34-27
ROI
−2.1%
on 20 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.29 u
Average odds
2.07
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W6, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-3-2-101 Aug22 Aug12 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Tennis22-14 · 36 graded
+1.4
61%
Football7-6 · 13 graded
−0.1
54%
Basketball2-3 · 5 graded
−12.2
40%
NFL & NCAAF3-2 · 5 graded
+3.0
60%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−57.3
0%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−46.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result30-25 · 55 graded
−1.8
55%
Double chance2-1 · 3 graded
−6.6
67%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+6.8
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite16-11 · 27 graded
−8.4
59%
Even16-14 · 30 graded
+1.2
53%
Underdog2-2 · 4 graded
+22.1
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.896-8 · 14 graded
−26.9%
43%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −7.8 pp
    15-14 · 52%
    ROI +23.1%
  • September 2026
    +1.4 pp
    9-7 · 56%
    ROI −36.4%
  • October 2026
    +6.5 pp
    10-6 · 63%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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A3RBET 🔎 Analysis Picks 📊 (@A3RBET) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 11:13 · 3 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Alexander Bublik
2:1
Karen Khachanov
Alexander Bublik to win
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 09:09 · 31 min before start
Lost
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Iva Jovic
1:2
Diana Shnaider
Iva Jovic to win
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 17:17 · 13 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Nikoloz Basilashvili
2:0
Adrian Mannarino
Nikoloz Basilashvili to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 17:31 · 5 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 13:57 · 2 min before start
Won
Super League·
Punjab FC
1:1
Mumbai City FC
Punjab FC or draw
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 04:31 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Rafael Jodar
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 04:26 · 6 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Maja Chwalinska
2:1
Sonay Kartal
Sonay Kartal to win
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 01:44 · 19 h before start
odds 2.08DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 13:26 · 33 min before start
odds 2.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Sunderland
0:2
Brighton
Brighton to win
Open on Xexpected 40% from the closing line+1.40 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 13:23 · 37 min before start
Won
Premier League·
Aston Villa
2:2
Brentford
Brentford or draw
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 04:00 · 9 min before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Jiri Lehecka
2:1
Nuno Borges
Jiri Lehecka to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 03:34 · 1 h before start
Void
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open: Qualification·
Gabriela Ruse
void
Yulia Putintseva
Yulia Putintseva to win
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:39 · 21 min before start
odds 2.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
17:22
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line+1.24 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 11:29 · 35 min before start
Won
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Sonay Kartal
2:0
Xinyu Wang
Sonay Kartal to win
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 04:00 · 45 min before start
Won
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Maria Sakkari
2:0
Storm Hunter
Maria Sakkari to win
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Jelena Ostapenko
2:0
Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa to win
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 17:09 · 50 min before start
Lost
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Crvena Zvezda Beograd
77:72
Anadolu Efes
Anadolu Efes to win
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Singleposted 30 Sept, 17:06 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLS·
New York Red Bulls
0:3
St. Louis City
St. Louis City to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 15:49 · 8 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
0:7
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 15:42 · 7 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Washington Mystics
75:93
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta Dream to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 18:36 · 8 min before start
odds 1.66DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Italy
0:2
Belgium
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 13:57 · 2 min before start
odds 1.68DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Premier League·
Brighton
3:0
Arsenal
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 19:25 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Over 53.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 18:50 · 9 min before start
odds 1.71DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Premier League·
Leeds United
4:1
Newcastle United
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.71 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 05:43 · 13 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Zverev
3:1
Ben Shelton
Alexander Zverev to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 11 Sept, 22:56 · 48 min before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
1:3
Ben Shelton
Ben Shelton to win
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 15:10 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Champions League · League Stage·
Fenerbahçe
1:1
AS Roma
AS Roma to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 14:48 · 10 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Coco Gauff
1:2
Elena Rybakina
Elena Rybakina to win
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 14:40 · 9 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Aryna Sabalenka
2:0
Jessica Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka to win
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 01:05 · 2 h before start
Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Ben Shelton
3:2
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz to win
Open on Xexpected 52% by model