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@Break1ngBet712 followersfirst pick 30 Augusually posts 8 h before start

12 years of experience in betting. Daily free bets. Mostly Tennis and NBA + CS2, F1 and Football bets sometimes. Focus on long-term profit.

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Tipster index50.6#415 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Luciano Darderi
-:-
Rinky Hijikata
Rinky Hijikata to win@1.89
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Luca Van Assche
-:-
Mariano Navone
Luca Van Assche to win@2.60
Hit rate
46.2%
expected 45.1%
Edge
+1.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 26.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
14
6-7-1 · 2 pending
ROI
+15.6%
on 12 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
2.10
singles with odds
Form
streak W3 · best W3, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.5029 Aug14 Sept30 Sept16 Oct1 Nov

By sport

Basketball4-5-1 · 10 graded
−3.3
44%
Tennis2-2 · 4 graded
+10.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap4-3-1 · 8 graded
+9.4
57%
Match result2-2 · 4 graded
+5.6
50%
Parlays0-2 · 2 graded
−37.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even4-4-1 · 9 graded
−1.1
50%
Underdog2-1 · 3 graded
+32.5
67%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-1-1 · 4 graded
-
67%
1.90…2.292-3 · 5 graded
−21.8%
40%
2.30…3.492-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −28.9 pp
    0-1 · 0%
  • October 2026
    −13.0 pp
    3-6-1 · 33%
    ROI −15.4%
  • November 2026
    +53.3 pp
    3-0 · 100%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 2 Nov, 03:12 · 8 h before start
odds 2.60Pending
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Luca Van Assche
-:-
Mariano Navone
Luca Van Assche to win@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds
Singleposted 1 Nov, 23:08 · 11 h before start
odds 1.89Pending
ATP 1000 · Paris Masters·
Luciano Darderi
-:-
Rinky Hijikata
Rinky Hijikata to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds
Singleposted 1 Nov, 12:17 · 8 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
97:108
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics −5.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 03:21 · 11 h before start
odds 2.55Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Jiri Lehecka
1:2
Valentin Vacherot
Valentin Vacherot to win@2.55
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds+1.55 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 13:46 · 11 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
119:98
Oklahoma City Thunder
Houston Rockets −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 12:15 · 11 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
114:121
Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors −5.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 03:10 · 16 h before start
odds 1.66Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Jan-Lennard Struff
2:0
Nuno Borges
Jan-Lennard Struff to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.66 u
Singleposted 30 Oct, 00:02 · 19 h before start
odds 2.90Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Matteo Berrettini
0:2
Alex de Minaur
Matteo Berrettini to win@2.90
Open on Xexpected 33% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 18:08 · 8 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
103:124
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +7.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 25 Oct, 19:10 · 3 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
109:136
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
102:111
Orlando Magic
New York Knicks to win✕
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 20:23 · 5 h before start
odds 2.95Won
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:121
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets −6@2.95
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds+1.95 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 11:41 · 10 h before start
odds 1.90Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
115:110
Miami Heat
Miami Heat −3.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:25 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Push
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Lakers −8@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:47 · 4 h before start
odds 1.90Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers −3.5@1.90
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 30 Aug, 11:07 · 6 h before start
Lost
US Open · Men's Singles·
Chak Wong
1:3
Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul −1.5 sets✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Mariano Navone
3:2
Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic −1.5 sets✕
Open on Xexpected 29% by model