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@CodePicksMx172 followersfirst pick 11 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Me podría pasar todo el día viendo partidos 🏈 NFL • ⚾ MLB • ⚽ Futbol • 🏀 NBA

BasketballBaseballNFL & NCAAFFootballHockey
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Tipster index50.8#342 on the leaderboardup 201 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
48.8%
expected 48.3%
Edge
+0.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
83
40-42-1
ROI
+8.8%
on 50 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.11 u
Average odds
1.89
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W7, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2011 Aug30 Aug18 Sept7 Oct26 Oct

By sport

Baseball15-15 · 30 graded
−1.2
50%
Basketball17-12-1 · 30 graded
+11.1
59%
NFL & NCAAF4-6 · 10 graded
−12.0
40%
Football2-7 · 9 graded
−15.2
22%
Hockey2-2 · 4 graded
+3.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals11-13 · 24 graded
−2.5
46%
Match result12-8 · 20 graded
+8.2
60%
Handicap11-8-1 · 20 graded
+2.4
58%
Parlays6-12 · 18 graded
−2.8
33%
Both teams to score0-1 · 1 graded
−55.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-2 · 8 graded
+6.6
75%
Even27-26-1 · 54 graded
+0.4
51%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
+6.1
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.898-10-1 · 19 graded
−20.0%
44%
1.90…2.2918-8 · 26 graded
+35.3%
69%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −8.8 pp
    2-5 · 29%
  • September 2026
    +0.2 pp
    14-13 · 52%
    ROI +17.5%
  • October 2026
    +2.1 pp
    24-24-1 · 50%
    ROI +11.7%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 26 Oct, 00:17 · 47 min before start
Lost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
CF America
1:2
Pachuca
CF America to win✕
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
CF America
1:2
Pachuca
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 34% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 00:15 · 4 min before start
odds 2.40Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 21:54 · 5 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Brooklyn Nets
109:136
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers −6@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:05 · 3 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
114:121
Houston Rockets
Over 227
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Phoenix Suns
131:122
Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns −10@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:05 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
127:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +12.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:05 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
120:124
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 22:05 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Phoenix Suns
131:122
Golden State Warriors
Under 221.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:33 · 1 h before start
odds 2.00Won
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
93:115
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:19 · 3 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.53 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:51 · 2 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Over 237.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:51 · 2 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
105:121
Dallas Mavericks
Over 239.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:51 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
120:119
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 239.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:51 · 5 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
110:114
Houston Rockets
Under 225
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 2 h before start
odds 1.94Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
81:128
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −3@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 5 h before start
odds 1.89Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
110:114
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets +5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 5 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Clippers +9@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
New York Knicks +3@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 3 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
111:128
Detroit Pistons
Miami Heat to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:40 · 5 h before start
odds 2.65Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
110:114
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets to win@2.65
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds+1.65 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers −3@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:18 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets +8.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:18 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 237.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:18 · 4 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Over 236.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:44 · 1 h before start
odds 2.05Won
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Atlas
2:5
CF America
CF America to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Parlay · 2posted 21 Oct, 22:14 · 46 min before start
odds 4.73Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
125:132
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@2.15✓
NBA · Regular season·
Portland Trail Blazers
124:83
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns to win@2.20✕
Open on Xexpected 19% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:13 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89Push
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers −3@1.89
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:13 · 47 min before start
odds 1.89Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:13 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
121:96
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers −5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.89Won
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Under 240@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.89 u