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Chud's Picks

@Chuds_Picks219 followersfirst pick 23 Septusually posts 2 h before start

Sports Picks posted daily. DM for paid Exclusive plays or (Text 832-674-0864 for one premium play)

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBaseballBasketball
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Tipster index40.8#558 on the leaderboarddown 71 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
38.5%
expected 48.4%
Edge
−9.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 24.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
26
10-16
ROI
−49.3%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.94 u
Average odds
2.10
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W2, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1022 Sept29 Sept7 Oct14 Oct21 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF6-6 · 12 graded
−7.3
50%
Hockey2-4 · 6 graded
−0.5
33%
Baseball1-4 · 5 graded
−27.8
20%
Basketball1-2 · 3 graded
−9.2
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap6-4 · 10 graded
+1.2
60%
Totals1-6 · 7 graded
−32.9
14%
Match result2-3 · 5 graded
−6.3
40%
Parlays1-3 · 4 graded
−2.1
25%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite6-2 · 8 graded
+10.2
75%
Even3-8 · 11 graded
−19.4
27%
Underdog0-3 · 3 graded
−39.1
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.290-4 · 4 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −45.0 pp
    0-3 · 0%
  • October 2026
    −5.3 pp
    10-13 · 43%
    ROI −18.8%

By league

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 22:59 · 31 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Marshall Thundering Herd
20:13
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars over 34.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Marshall Thundering Herd
20:13
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama Jaguars over 30.5✕
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:59 · 1 min before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:59 · 3 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Over 231
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 22:59 · 1 min before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
2:5
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings +1.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
2:5
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings to win✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 23:22 · 2 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins to win✕
Open on Xexpected 22% by model
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:22 · 38 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Over 152
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers +10.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
13:10
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
16:18
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 5 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:58 · 9 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
3:2
Carolina Hurricanes
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:08 · 6 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
17:14
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oregon Ducks −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:08 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
24:27
Utah Utes
Colorado Buffaloes +17.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:08 · 2 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin Badgers to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:08 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
BYU Cougars +11.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 23:35 · 25 min before start
Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 7
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:21 · 3 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:21 · 3 h before start
odds 2.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 42% from the closing line+1.30 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:21 · 2 h before start
odds 2.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
2:1
Philadelphia Flyers
Philadelphia Flyers to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Oct, 22:30 · 2 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Dallas Stars to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Dallas Stars over 3.5✕
Open on Xexpected 11% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:30 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:17 · 42 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
27:24
FIU Golden Panthers
Under 45
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:17 · 12 min before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:7
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis Blues to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 20:33 · 27 min before start
odds 2.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Houston Astros
3:7
Chicago White Sox
Houston Astros −1.5
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 22:30 · 3 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
6:5
Houston Astros
Houston Astros to win@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 22:21 · 14 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
4:2
Toronto Blue Jays
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u