Ben Tredinnick

@BMTredinnick371 followersfirst pick 9 Septusually posts 1 h before start

Sports Data/ Betting Analyst. (Follow/DM for Picks) New York Giants/ Texas Longhorns/ Oscar Piastri fan.

NFL & NCAAFFootballBasketballHockeyBaseball

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Tipster index48.2#532 on the leaderboardestablished sample

Hit rate

50.0%

expected 51.2%

Edge

−1.2 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.9%, the edge is within noise

Graded

100

50-50

ROI

−1.8%

on 38 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.14 u

Average odds

1.80

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W7, worst L10

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

NFL & NCAAF9-28 · 37 graded

−18.6

24%

Football23-6 · 29 graded

+14.6

79%

Basketball13-11 · 24 graded

+7.2

54%

Hockey2-4 · 6 graded

−17.2

33%

Baseball3-1 · 4 graded

+19.7

75%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals33-16 · 49 graded

+7.6

67%

Parlays3-21 · 24 graded

−16.4

13%

Handicap9-12 · 21 graded

−9.7

43%

Match result5-1 · 6 graded

+18.1

83%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite22-6 · 28 graded

+9.4

79%

Even25-23 · 48 graded

+0.3

52%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-0 · 3 graded

100%

1.50…1.8915-9 · 24 graded

+7.7%

63%

1.90…2.294-7 · 11 graded

−29.8%

36%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks

September 2026
+15.1 pp
14-5 · 74%
ROI +39.7%
October 2026
−13.8 pp
13-24 · 35%
ROI −25.8%
November 2026
+2.4 pp
23-21 · 52%
ROI +6.6%

By league

NBA13-1154%+7.2
NFL8-1535%−7.2
Champions League17-385%+16.7
NCAAF1-137%−37.3
NHL2-433%−17.2
MLB · USA3-175%+19.7
Europa League1-233%−17.1
Serie A · Italy2-0100%+38.6
Ligue 1 · France0-10%−69.9
LaLiga · Spain1-0100%+46.7

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:00

Detroit Pistons

106:112

Philadelphia 76ers

Detroit Pistons −2.5✕

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:00

Detroit Pistons

106:112

Philadelphia 76ers

Under 217.5✕

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:00

Washington Wizards

105:120

Atlanta Hawks

Under 231.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 1 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:30

Boston Celtics

109:102

Milwaukee Bucks

Boston Celtics −11.5✕

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:30

Boston Celtics

109:102

Milwaukee Bucks

Over 224.5✕

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 1 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:30

Brooklyn Nets

114:104

Charlotte Hornets

Brooklyn Nets +3.5✓

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 00:30

Brooklyn Nets

114:104

Charlotte Hornets

Under 213.5✕

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 2 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 01:00

Oklahoma City Thunder

124:116

Cleveland Cavaliers

Oklahoma City Thunder −2.5

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 2 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 01:00

New Orleans Pelicans

120:113

Utah Jazz

Under 234.5

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 01:00

Memphis Grizzlies

103:107

Indiana Pacers

Memphis Grizzlies −6.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 3 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 02:00

Phoenix Suns

119:132

Portland Trail Blazers

Portland Trail Blazers −3.5✓

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 02:00

Phoenix Suns

119:132

Portland Trail Blazers

Over 227.5✓

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 3 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 02:30

San Antonio Spurs

112:111

Dallas Mavericks

Under 227.5

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 4 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 03:00

Sacramento Kings

103:116

LA Lakers

Over 234.5

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:30 · 4 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·5 Nov, 03:30

LA Clippers

116:117

Miami Heat

LA Clippers +4.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

odds 2.05DKLost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 00:00

Washington Capitals

5:6

Dallas Stars

Under 5.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

odds 1.70DKLost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 00:00

Toronto Maple Leafs

2:3

Utah Mammoth

Over 6.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

odds 2.10DKLost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 00:00

Philadelphia Flyers

2:4

Minnesota Wild

Under 5.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 30 min before start

odds 2.14DKLost

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 00:00

Tampa Bay Lightning

4:2

Detroit Red Wings

Over 6.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 2 h before start

odds 1.80DKWon

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 01:00

Nashville Predators

4:1

Carolina Hurricanes

Under 6.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 23:30 · 3 h before start

odds 1.70DKWon

NHL · NHL: Regular season·4 Nov, 02:00

Vancouver Canucks

4:5

Anaheim Ducks

Over 6.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 45 min before start

odds 1.95DKWon

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 17:45

Shakhtar Donetsk

0:1

Sporting CP

Under 2.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 3 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 20:00

Barcelona

3:0

Aston Villa

Over 2.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 3 h before start

Lost

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 20:00

Bodoe/Glimt

0:0

Lille

Over 2.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 3 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 20:00

Feyenoord

0:3

Inter

Over 2.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 3 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 20:00

LASK

4:0

Slovan Bratislava

Over 2.5

Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:00 · 3 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·3 Nov, 20:00

Villarreal

0:6

Paris Saint-Germain

Over 2.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 1 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:00

Cleveland Cavaliers

112:117

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5✓

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:00

Cleveland Cavaliers

112:117

Oklahoma City Thunder

Under 228.5✕

Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:30

Philadelphia 76ers

126:107

Chicago Bulls

Philadelphia 76ers −11.5✓

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:30

Philadelphia 76ers

126:107

Chicago Bulls

Under 239.5✓

Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:30

Charlotte Hornets

91:124

Detroit Pistons

Detroit Pistons −3.5✓

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:30

Charlotte Hornets

91:124

Detroit Pistons

Under 210.5✕

Singleposted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 00:30

Indiana Pacers

104:108

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta Hawks −4.5

Singleposted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 01:00

Dallas Mavericks

100:115

Sacramento Kings

Dallas Mavericks −9.5

Singleposted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Won

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 01:00

Minnesota Timberwolves

112:100

Milwaukee Bucks

Minnesota Timberwolves −10.5

Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Nov, 22:46 · 2 h before start

Lost

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 01:00

Memphis Grizzlies

134:135

New Orleans Pelicans

Memphis Grizzlies −5.5✕

NBA · Regular season·3 Nov, 01:00

Memphis Grizzlies

134:135

New Orleans Pelicans

Under 234.5✕