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@parlaygoddess_80 followersfirst pick 2 Augusually posts 7 h before start

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Tipster index48.1#450 on the leaderboarddown 4 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Leylah Fernandez
live
Elise Mertens
Elise Mertens to win@1.85
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Valentin Vacherot
-:-
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.32
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Alex Michelsen
-:-
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils to win@1.43
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Clement Tabur
-:-
Toby Samuel
Toby Samuel to win@1.63
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Taylor Fritz
-:-
Denis Shapovalov
Taylor Fritz to win@1.34
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Arthur Fery
-:-
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.33
Hit rate
56.4%
expected 57.4%
Edge
−1.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 53.9%, the edge is within noise
Graded
1,051
591-457-3 · 8 pending
ROI
−7.9%
on 734 picks with odds · max drawdown −70.88 u
Average odds
1.71
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W11, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20-100101 Aug23 Aug14 Sept6 Oct27 Oct

By sport

Tennis202-171-1 · 374 graded
−3.7
54%
Baseball171-147 · 318 graded
−0.5
54%
Football91-49 · 140 graded
+0.5
65%
NFL & NCAAF60-54-2 · 116 graded
−1.6
53%
Hockey51-23 · 74 graded
+7.9
69%
Basketball16-13 · 29 graded
+1.7
55%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result445-332-3 · 780 graded
−1.1
57%
Totals64-45 · 109 graded
−3.7
59%
Handicap67-33 · 100 graded
+6.8
67%
Parlays3-35 · 38 graded
−6.5
8%
Both teams to score11-9 · 20 graded
−1.7
55%
Team totals1-2 · 3 graded
−35.4
33%
Double chance0-1 · 1 graded
−65.1
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite319-144-2 · 465 graded
+0.1
69%
Even257-244 · 501 graded
−1.0
51%
Underdog12-34-1 · 47 graded
−7.3
26%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.50143-60-1 · 204 graded
−5.6%
70%
1.50…1.89207-161-1 · 369 graded
−5.7%
56%
1.90…2.2948-57 · 105 graded
−7.2%
46%
2.30…3.4912-28-1 · 41 graded
−23.1%
30%
3.50+1-3 · 4 graded
-
25%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +1.6 pp
    270-194-2 · 58%
    ROI −0.8%
  • September 2026
    −1.7 pp
    169-141 · 55%
    ROI −12.9%
  • October 2026
    −4.5 pp
    152-122-1 · 55%
    ROI −11.6%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 8 h before start
odds 1.32Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Valentin Vacherot
-:-
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win@1.32
Open on Xexpected 72% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 10 h before start
odds 1.43Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Alex Michelsen
-:-
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 14 h before start
odds 1.30Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Novak Djokovic
-:-
Jan-Lennard Struff
Novak Djokovic to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 13 h before start
odds 1.33Pending
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Arthur Fery
-:-
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 12 h before start
odds 1.63Pending
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Clement Tabur
-:-
Toby Samuel
Toby Samuel to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 12 h before start
odds 1.34Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Taylor Fritz
-:-
Denis Shapovalov
Taylor Fritz to win@1.34
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 15 h before start
odds 1.94Pending
ATP Challenger · Brest, France·
Hugo Gaston
-:-
Moise Kouame
Moise Kouame to win@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 02:51 · 14 min before start
odds 1.85Pending
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Leylah Fernandez
live
Elise Mertens
Elise Mertens to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds
Parlay · 4posted 27 Oct, 02:13 · 57 min before start
odds 16.56Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Tommy Paul
2:0
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev to win@2.15✕
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Flavio Cobolli
2:1
Grigor Dimitrov
Grigor Dimitrov to win@2.70✕
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Adrian Mannarino
2:1
Ignacio Buse
Adrian Mannarino to win@1.56✓
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open·
Kaitlin Quevedo
2:1
Sofia Kenin
Kaitlin Quevedo to win@1.83✓
Open on Xexpected 5% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 27 Oct, 01:20 · 49 min before start
odds 6.01Lost
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Ann Li
0:2
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Ekaterina Alexandrova to win@1.82✓
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Yulia Putintseva
2:1
Maria Sakkari
Maria Sakkari to win@1.55✕
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
2:1
Nikola Bartunkova
Nikola Bartunkova to win@1.47✕
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
void
Arthur Fils
Hubert Hurkacz to win@1.56∅
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Cameron Norrie
2:0
Francisco Cerundolo
Francisco Cerundolo to win@1.46✕
Open on Xexpected 14% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 01:38 · 3 h before start
odds 1.42Lost
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open·
Daria Snigur
0:2
Anna Bondar
Daria Snigur to win@1.42
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 01:38 · 5 h before start
odds 1.46Lost
ATP Challenger · Seoul, South Korea·
Marin Cilic
1:2
Zhizhen Zhang
Marin Cilic to win@1.46
Open on Xexpected 66% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 01:38 · 7 h before start
odds 1.43Won
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open·
Paula Badosa
2:0
Carol Young Suh Lee
Paula Badosa to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds+0.43 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 13 h before start
odds 1.48Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Lorenzo Musetti
2:0
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz to win@1.48
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 15 h before start
odds 1.82Won
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Jan-Lennard Struff
1:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.82 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 11 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna): Qualification·
Lorenzo Sonego
1:2
Jacob Fearnley
Lorenzo Sonego to win
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 13 h before start
odds 1.37Void
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna): Qualification·
Fabian Marozsan
void
Tomas Machac
Tomas Machac to win@1.37
Open on Xexpected 70% from odds
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 8 h before start
odds 1.30Won
WTA 500 · Ningbo Open·
Elena Rybakina
2:0
Leylah Fernandez
Elena Rybakina to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.30 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 00:56 · 4 h before start
odds 1.40Lost
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Ashlyn Krueger
0:2
Katerina Siniakova
Ashlyn Krueger to win@1.40
Open on Xexpected 68% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
0:4
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
3:1
Los Angeles Kings
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.54 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
7:4
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:4
San Jose Sharks
Boston Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
Washington Capitals to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Columbus Blue Jackets
2:1
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
2:7
Toronto Maple Leafs
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 17:29 · 9 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
1:5
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.53Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.53
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.53 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:20 · 6 h before start
odds 1.29Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Lakers to win@1.29
Open on Xexpected 74% from odds+0.29 u

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