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Average Guys Average Picks

@A_GAP23451 followersfirst pick 9 Septusually posts 4 h before start

Average Gambling Advice. Picks Daily •💸 @ABLeague_

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
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Tipster index66.0#31 on the leaderboardup 36 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
67.9%
expected 51.3%
Edge
+16.6 pp
hit rate at least 52.4% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
29
19-9-1
ROI
+14.9%
on 14 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.00 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W6, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20249 Sept21 Sept4 Oct16 Oct29 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF17-8-1 · 26 graded
+16.2
68%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−0.4
50%
Baseball1-0 · 1 graded
+59.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap15-6-1 · 22 graded
+22.7
71%
Totals1-2 · 3 graded
−21.3
33%
Team totals1-1 · 2 graded
−18.3
50%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+59.6
100%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+28.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-2 · 5 graded
−8.2
60%
Even12-6-1 · 19 graded
+16.8
67%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+35.9
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.893-2 · 5 graded
+12.4%
60%
1.90…2.293-3-1 · 7 graded
−3.0%
50%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +7.7 pp
    7-5 · 58%
    ROI −24.8%
  • October 2026
    +23.3 pp
    12-4-1 · 75%
    ROI +36.9%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 23:38 · 21 min before start
odds 2.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5
Open on Xexpected 41% from the closing line+1.34 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 23:41 · 34 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys −4.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 19:50 · 6 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs +1.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
35:34
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers over 30.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 26 h before start
odds 1.33DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.33 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ohio Bobcats
31:14
Central Michigan Chippewas
Ohio Bobcats −2.5
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 4 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Vanderbilt Commodores
17:52
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels −9.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 40 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
31:52
Arizona Wildcats
Over 60.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
19:38
South Carolina Gamecocks
Florida Gators −11.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:20 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
38:13
UAB Blazers
Memphis Tigers −14.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
14:31
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes −13.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 5 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Florida Gators −5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
31:3
Michigan State Spartans
Wisconsin Badgers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 4 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Charlotte 49ers
8:59
Memphis Tigers
Under 51.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:55 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa State Cyclones
45:42
West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia Mountaineers +3
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
17:20
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns −5.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
52:3
Central Michigan Chippewas
Over 53.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
52:3
Central Michigan Chippewas
Over 51.5✓
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
27:10
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Wyoming Cowboys +2.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
23:13
Colorado Buffaloes
Baylor Bears −9.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Toledo Rockets
41:16
San Diego State Aztecs
Toledo Rockets −2.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 26 Sept, 13:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Boston College Eagles
14:21
Virginia Tech Hokies
Boston College Eagles +14.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 20:19 · 4 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers −4.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Sept, 18:40 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
New York Giants +6.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:20 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills −4.5
Open on Xexpected 42% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 18:24 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos over 20.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 17:07 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
17:45
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide −10.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 14:07 · 10 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Over 44.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u