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Vinny Covers

@vinnycovers32 followersfirst pick 20 Octusually posts 48 min before start

Never seen a line I don’t like. +24.5 Units in October 🖨️

BasketballNFL & NCAAFHockeyFootballTennisBaseball
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Tipster index42.9#678 on the leaderboardup 56 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
43.5%
expected 48.6%
Edge
−5.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 34.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
69
30-39
ROI
−14.4%
on 67 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.57 u
Average odds
2.02
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W8, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2019 Oct23 Oct27 Oct1 Nov5 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF8-13 · 21 graded
−12.2
38%
Basketball11-10 · 21 graded
+2.2
52%
Hockey8-8 · 16 graded
+1.4
50%
Football0-5 · 5 graded
−35.9
0%
Tennis1-2 · 3 graded
−12.2
33%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+17.5
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap18-22 · 40 graded
−5.3
45%
Match result11-11 · 22 graded
+2.8
50%
Parlays1-3 · 4 graded
−11.0
25%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−52.3
0%
Team totals0-1 · 1 graded
−52.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+38.0
100%
Even28-32 · 60 graded
−3.8
47%
Underdog0-4 · 4 graded
−29.5
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.898-9 · 17 graded
−16.4%
47%
1.90…2.2921-23 · 44 graded
−8.1%
48%
2.30…3.490-3 · 3 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −10.5 pp
    17-27 · 39%
    ROI −26.1%
  • November 2026
    +4.5 pp
    13-12 · 52%
    ROI +7.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 5 Nov, 02:14 · 15 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
112:111
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks +12.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:22 · 37 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
105:120
Atlanta Hawks
Washington Wizards +2@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:22 · 37 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
106:112
Philadelphia 76ers
Detroit Pistons −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:22 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:2
Ottawa Senators
Buffalo Sabres to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:22 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Eastern Michigan Eagles
7:35
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan Chippewas −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:22 · 37 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sacramento State Hornets
17:20
Toledo Rockets
Toledo Rockets −25@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Akron Zips
20:28
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio Bobcats −13.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
3:1
St. Louis Blues
New York Rangers to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
2:3
Vegas Golden Knights
Pittsburgh Penguins to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
2:3
Utah Mammoth
Over 6.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:6
Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 3 Nov, 17:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Villarreal
0:6
Paris Saint-Germain
Both teams to score: yes✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Villarreal
0:6
Paris Saint-Germain
Over 3.5✓
Open on Xexpected 27% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 3 Nov, 17:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Atletico Madrid
0:2
Bayern Munich
Both teams to score: yes✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Atletico Madrid
0:2
Bayern Munich
Over 3✕
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:48 · 2 h before start
odds 8.55Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
3:0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa to win@8.55
Open on Xexpected 11% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 17:48 · 2 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester United
3:2
AS Roma
AS Roma +0.5@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Nov, 02:32 · 28 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
138:117
Miami Heat
LA Lakers −2@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 23:15 · 45 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
112:117
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 23:15 · 45 min before start
odds 1.95Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
3:2
Vegas Golden Knights
penalties
Boston Bruins to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 23:15 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAA · Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
72:78
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga Bulldogs −5.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 23:15 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
134:135
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies +15.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 23:15 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
17:34
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears +3.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 2 Nov, 04:32 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAA · Regular Season·
Northern Illinois Huskies
87:89
Grambling State Tigers
Grambling State Tigers +8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 22:45 · 15 min before start
odds 2.05Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
1:4
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds+1.05 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 21:12 · 13 min before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
19:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots −7@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 23:28 · 17 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arkansas Razorbacks
10:34
Missouri Tigers
Arkansas Razorbacks +10.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 23:28 · 2 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Carolina Tar Heels
35:38
Miami Hurricanes
North Carolina Tar Heels +13@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 23:28 · 2 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
31:3
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs +20@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 23:28 · 2 min before start
odds 1.80Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
30:18
Ohio State Buckeyes
USC Trojans +7@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 19:17 · 27 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
25:49
Utah Utes
Cincinnati Bearcats +7@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 19:17 · 12 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
23:16
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota Golden Gophers +21@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u