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@thecappersforum4.6K followersfirst pick 11 Octusually posts 2 h before start

Join the Forum and Talk to other sports handicappers NFL, NBA, NCAA Football and Basketball, MLB, and NHL. #FreeSportsPicks #NCAAPicks #SportsBetting #NFLPicks

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index52.1#186 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
57.1%
expected 54.5%
Edge
+2.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
22
12-9-1
ROI
+52.1%
on 6 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.85
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.20.40.610 Oct11 Oct12 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF12-8-1 · 21 graded
+5.1
60%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−47.9
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap11-6-1 · 18 graded
+11.2
65%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
−2.3
50%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−65.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-4-1 · 7 graded
−34.0
33%
Even7-3 · 10 graded
+15.4
70%
Underdog3-2 · 5 graded
+20.8
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-0 · 3 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.292-1 · 3 graded
-
67%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +2.6 pp
    12-9-1 · 57%
    ROI +52.1%

By league

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:33 · 26 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
New York Giants +4
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 16:28 · 32 min before start
Push
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins +7
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
17:12
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets to win
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots −3
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:18 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
Washington Commanders −3
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:58 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:58 · 2 h before start
odds 1.67Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots −2.5@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.67 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:58 · 2 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions −5.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers +3.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 9 h before start
odds 1.99Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.99
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
34:22
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts +3
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Over 46.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 2 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals −6.5
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 10 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:48 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:18 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins +4
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:03 · 6 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos −3.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:48 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Over 47
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:23 · 4 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
3:26
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans +6.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 13:23 · 4 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Miami Dolphins
24:31
Cincinnati Bengals
Miami Dolphins +7.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 11:58 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
19:17
Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars −6
Open on Xexpected 38% by model