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RoseyKnows

@roseyknows_275 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

Free 🎾⛳️🏀🏈⚾️⚽️ plays Sports card market talk Breaker @swishbreaks on @whatnot

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Tipster index61.0#95 on the leaderboarddown 1 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
54.3%
expected 47.5%
Edge
+6.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 47.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
127
69-58
ROI
+8.3%
on 122 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.27 u
Average odds
2.02
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W7, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2.502.557.531 Jul22 Aug12 Sept4 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Tennis46-45 · 91 graded
+3.6
51%
NFL & NCAAF18-8 · 26 graded
+20.6
69%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
+12.0
60%
Baseball1-2 · 3 graded
−20.0
33%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−0.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result46-48 · 94 graded
+0.2
49%
Handicap19-3 · 22 graded
+34.6
86%
Parlays1-6 · 7 graded
−1.9
14%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+16.9
67%
Double chance1-0 · 1 graded
+46.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-3 · 5 graded
−22.0
40%
Even60-41 · 101 graded
+8.6
59%
Underdog6-8 · 14 graded
+8.7
43%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8936-24 · 60 graded
+3.8%
60%
1.90…2.2924-15 · 39 graded
+25.9%
62%
2.30…3.497-9 · 16 graded
+6.4%
44%
3.50+1-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +8.9 pp
    34-27 · 56%
    ROI +13.3%
  • September 2026
    +5.8 pp
    17-15 · 53%
    ROI +2.4%
  • October 2026
    +4.1 pp
    18-16 · 53%
    ROI +4.6%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:21 · 1 h before start
odds 1.93Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers +3.5@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 19:21 · 1 h before start
odds 2.66Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to win@2.66
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:40 · 19 min before start
odds 1.68Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons +3.5@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 16:40 · 19 min before start
odds 2.26Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
29:20
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons to win@2.26
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.26 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:04 · 56 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:04 · 7 h before start
odds 1.98Won
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 23:56 · 19 min before start
odds 4.15Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to win@4.15
Open on Xexpected 23% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 22:47 · 2 h before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:48 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
New York Jets +7.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:48 · 5 h before start
odds 1.98Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5@1.98
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.98 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:32 · 12 h before start
odds 1.81Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers +3.5@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:32 · 34 h before start
odds 2.18Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Houston Texans to win@2.18
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.18 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:23 · 11 h before start
odds 1.69Won
Premier League·
Fulham
1:0
Hull City
Fulham to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 03:23 · 13 h before start
odds 2.25Lost
Premier League·
Newcastle United
0:1
Aston Villa
Newcastle United to win@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 01:51 · 9 h before start
odds 1.57Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Rafael Jodar
2:0
Daniil Medvedev
Rafael Jodar to win@1.57
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds+0.57 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 2.26Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos to win@2.26
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.26 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 02:04 · 8 h before start
odds 1.61Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Daniil Medvedev
2:0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 22:05 · 2 h before start
odds 2.50Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:23 · 37 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:23 · 37 min before start
odds 2.46Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels to win@2.46
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.46 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:41 · 1 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Washington Huskies to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 04:50 · 1 h before start
odds 1.63Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Bernard Tomic
0:2
Matteo Arnaldi
Bernard Tomic to win@1.63
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 04:50 · 2 h before start
odds 1.78Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Marcos Giron
1:2
Sebastian Baez
Sebastian Baez to win@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 04:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.73Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Fabian Marozsan
0:2
Zachary Svajda
Fabian Marozsan to win@1.73
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 04:50 · 7 h before start
odds 1.54Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Cameron Norrie
1:2
Dalibor Svrcina
Cameron Norrie to win@1.54
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 04:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.79Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Yibing Wu
2:0
Michael Zheng
Yibing Wu to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:29 · 7 h before start
odds 2.34Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Daniil Medvedev
2:0
Jan-Lennard Struff
Jan-Lennard Struff to win@2.34
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 03:29 · 6 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Ugo Humbert
1:2
Jiri Lehecka
Ugo Humbert to win@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 06:58 · 11 min before start
odds 2.20Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Daniil Medvedev
2:0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Pablo Carreno Busta to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u