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Picks Verde$ 🃏

@picksverdes1_25.2K followersfirst pick 4 Augusually posts 2 h before start
TennisBaseballFootballNFL & NCAAFBasketball
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Tipster index68.4#20 on the leaderboarddown 3 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Daniel Altmaier
-:-
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka to win +2
Hit rate
71.9%
expected 58.3%
Edge
+13.5 pp
hit rate at least 61.9% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
65
46-18-1 · 1 pending
ROI
+6.6%
on 26 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.36 u
Average odds
1.70
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W13, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2.502.557.53 Aug24 Aug14 Sept5 Oct26 Oct

By sport

Tennis26-9-1 · 36 graded
+15.6
74%
Baseball14-6 · 20 graded
+12.6
70%
Football5-0 · 5 graded
+39.3
100%
NFL & NCAAF1-2 · 3 graded
−28.7
33%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−43.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result38-14-1 · 53 graded
+11.9
73%
Parlays5-2 · 7 graded
+39.6
71%
Handicap3-2 · 5 graded
−6.1
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite25-7-1 · 33 graded
+9.8
78%
Even15-9 · 24 graded
+8.6
63%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+69.3
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.508-2 · 10 graded
+8.0%
80%
1.50…1.897-2 · 9 graded
+31.8%
78%
1.90…2.291-5 · 6 graded
−67.5%
17%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +13.2 pp
    17-5-1 · 77%
    ROI +11.4%
  • September 2026
    +20.1 pp
    19-5 · 79%
    ROI +7.6%
  • October 2026
    +5.2 pp
    10-8 · 56%
    ROI +0.5%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 29 Oct, 04:37 · 10 h before start
Pending
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Daniel Altmaier
-:-
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka to win◷
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Arthur Fery
-:-
Lorenzo Musetti
Lorenzo Musetti to win◷
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Ben Shelton
-:-
Jerome Kym
Ben Shelton to win◷
Open on Xexpected 29% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 19:50 · 3 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
110:103
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 05:46 · 4 h before start
odds 3.10Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Nikoloz Basilashvili
2:1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Nikoloz Basilashvili to win@3.10
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds+2.10 u
Parlay · 2posted 21 Oct, 05:39 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open·
Facundo Acosta
0:2
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Nikoloz Basilashvili to win✓
ATP 250 · European Open (Antwerp)·
Mariano Navone
0:2
Tallon Griekspoor
Tallon Griekspoor to win✓
Open on Xexpected 19% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 08:33 · 6 min before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Rafael Jodar
Rafael Jodar to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 22:22 · 2 h before start
odds 1.96DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 06:17 · 2 h before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
1:2
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Alexander Zverev −3.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:42 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
3:4
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:19 · 40 min before start
odds 1.71DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.71 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 02:28 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Jiri Lehecka
2:1
Nuno Borges
Jiri Lehecka to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 02:28 · 7 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Learner Tien
2:0
Zachary Svajda
Learner Tien to win
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 02:28 · 10 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Sebastian Baez
0:2
Valentin Vacherot
Valentin Vacherot to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Parlay · 3posted 9 Oct, 03:32 · 37 min before start
Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Adrian Mannarino
2:1
Flavio Cobolli
Flavio Cobolli to win✕
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Yannick Hanfmann
0:2
Frances Tiafoe
Frances Tiafoe to win✓
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Miomir Kecmanovic
0:2
Jakub Mensik
Jakub Mensik to win✓
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 01:02 · 28 min before start
odds 2.19DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 44% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 18:26 · 3 h before start
odds 1.63DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 19:33 · 51 min before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
30:23
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.28 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 05:26 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Adolfo Vallejo
Jiri Lehecka to win
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Parlay · 2posted 2 Oct, 22:47 · 4 h before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Alex de Minaur
2:1
Quentin Halys
Alex de Minaur to win✓
ATP 500 · China Open·
Francisco Cerundolo
2:0
Jakub Mensik
Jakub Mensik to win✕
Open on Xexpected 33% by model
Singleposted 30 Sept, 17:28 · 31 min before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
3:4
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.85 u
Parlay · 3posted 30 Sept, 00:12 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres to win✓
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Jiri Lehecka
2:1
Zizou Bergs
Jiri Lehecka to win✓
ATP 500 · Japan Open (Tokyo)·
Arthur Fils
2:0
Luca Van Assche
Arthur Fils −3.5✓
Open on Xexpected 22% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 04:37 · 32 min before start
Won
ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·
Vit Kopriva
0:2
Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 04:37 · 8 h before start
Lost
ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·
Jaime Faria
1:2
Hugo Gaston
Jaime Faria to win
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 00:36 · 1 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Athletics
5:7
Houston Astros
Houston Astros to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 22:43 · 19 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
1:0
Athletics
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line+0.37 u
Parlay · 2posted 19 Sept, 20:57 · 1 h before start
Won
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
12:6
Athletics
Cleveland Guardians to win✓
MLB·
San Diego Padres
7:6
Miami Marlins
San Diego Padres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 17:23 · 2 h before start
odds 1.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Elche
2:3
Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.20 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 17:23 · 5 h before start
odds 1.39DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.39 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 22:12 · 2 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 23:33 · 2 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Athletics
1:19
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Parlay · 2posted 12 Sept, 18:45 · 14 min before start
Won
LaLiga·
Real Madrid
4:1
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid to win✓
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
6:7
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 53% by model