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Max_Jorda

@max_jorda23115 followersfirst pick 23 Augusually posts 8 h before start

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BasketballNFL & NCAAFTennisFootballHockey
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Tipster index54.9#227 on the leaderboarddown 62 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
61.4%
expected 58.5%
Edge
+2.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 54.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
140
86-54
ROI
−0.8%
on 99 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.69 u
Average odds
1.75
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W9, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202422 Aug8 Sept25 Sept12 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Basketball25-15 · 40 graded
−1.8
63%
NFL & NCAAF24-11 · 35 graded
+8.1
69%
Tennis15-15 · 30 graded
+0.7
50%
Football12-9 · 21 graded
+3.2
57%
Hockey10-4 · 14 graded
+8.2
71%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result66-43 · 109 graded
+1.0
61%
Handicap16-4 · 20 graded
+15.2
80%
Parlays1-5 · 6 graded
−1.0
17%
Totals3-2 · 5 graded
+0.5
60%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite48-23 · 71 graded
−2.0
68%
Even33-21 · 54 graded
+8.1
61%
Underdog4-5 · 9 graded
+13.7
44%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5026-11 · 37 graded
−8.9%
70%
1.50…1.8924-17 · 41 graded
−3.7%
59%
1.90…2.293-5 · 8 graded
−25.5%
38%
2.30…3.494-4 · 8 graded
+18.8%
50%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −6.1 pp
    5-8 · 38%
    ROI −39.7%
  • September 2026
    +47.6 pp
    3-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +2.8 pp
    78-46 · 63%
    ROI +4.5%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Atlanta Hawks
117:129
Miami Heat
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.25DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
121:111
Washington Wizards
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line+0.25 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
97:89
Charlotte Hornets
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.34 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
109:114
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 7 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
129:99
Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 7 h before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Chicago Bulls
127:133
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.35 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 7 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
114:119
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors +8.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 7 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
100:132
Houston Rockets
Houston Rockets to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.29 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 7 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
91:104
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 8 h before start
odds 1.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
111:117
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.13 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 9 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Dallas Mavericks
120:96
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 16:51 · 10 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
LA Clippers
87:103
LA Lakers
LA Lakers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 5 h before start
odds 1.38DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:4
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.38 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
1:5
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
0:2
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:1
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:5
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
2:1
Los Angeles Kings
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5
Open on Xexpected 93% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 6 h before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
3:4
New York Islanders
penalties
New York Islanders +1.5
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 7 h before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
1:3
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild +1.5
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 8 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
4:1
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 8 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
5:6
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 18:29 · 8 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
0:2
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Parlay · 10posted 26 Oct, 22:33 · 27 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
21:38
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:10
Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
3:6
Los Angeles Kings
New York Rangers to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
5:2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
3:4
Detroit Red Wings
penalties
Edmonton Oilers to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
134:99
Chicago Bulls
Boston Celtics to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
109:113
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
Houston Rockets
120:110
Atlanta Hawks
Houston Rockets to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
125:114
Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder to win✓
NBA · Regular season·
Denver Nuggets
114:134
Golden State Warriors
Denver Nuggets to win✕
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 54 min before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
110:103
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards +7.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 54 min before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Cleveland Cavaliers
127:125
Minnesota Timberwolves
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.13DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
134:99
Chicago Bulls
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 85% from the closing line+0.13 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 1 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
109:113
Dallas Mavericks
Miami Heat to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 2 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
110:102
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Oct, 22:06 · 2 h before start
odds 1.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
125:114
Phoenix Suns
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.30 u