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Guy Fawlkes

@luis_sarabia310 followersfirst pick 13 Octusually posts 2 h before start

Anti morena, anti chairos, el comunismo y el socialismo me da asco, posteo y contesto con franqueza, si te ofendo me vale madres!!

FootballHockeyTennisCricket
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Tipster index42.4needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
26.7%
expected 45.6%
Edge
−18.9 pp
over expectation
Graded
8
2-6
ROI
−74.6%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.50 u
Average odds
2.59
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W1, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1.5-1-0.5012 Oct14 Oct17 Oct19 Oct22 Oct

By sport

Football0-3 · 3 graded
−31.2
0%
Hockey0-2 · 2 graded
−39.5
0%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
−2.8
50%
Cricket1-0 · 1 graded
+20.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-5 · 6 graded
−24.3
18%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
−4.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+23.2
100%
Even0-2 · 2 graded
−42.7
0%
Underdog0-4 · 4 graded
−31.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.290-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-3 · 3 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −18.9 pp
    2-6 · 27%
    ROI −74.6%

By league

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Guy Fawlkes (@luis_sarabia) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 04:29 · 2 h before start
Won
ICC Men's One-Day World Cup · ICC Men's Cricket World Cup Challenge League·
Qatar
0:0
Kuwait
Qatar win by 5 wickets
Qatar to win
Open on Xexpected 79% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:20 · 2 h before start
odds 2.27Lost
Finland · Liiga·
TPS
4:3
Ilves
TPS −2.27@2.27
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 13:20 · 2 h before start
odds 2.57Lost
Finland · Liiga·
TPS
4:3
Ilves
Ilves −2.57@2.57
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:08 · 3 h before start
odds 2.16Half lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
AFC Bournemouth −2.16@2.16
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−0.50 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:08 · 3 h before start
odds 3.28Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Draw@3.28
Open on Xexpected 29% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 10:08 · 3 h before start
odds 3.55Lost
Premier League·
AFC Bournemouth
2:0
Sunderland
Sunderland −3.55@3.55
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 07:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.28Won
WTA Challenger · Mallorca·
Tamara Zidansek
2:0
Despina Papamichail
Tamara Zidansek −1.28@1.28
Open on Xexpected 74% from odds+0.28 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 07:29 · 2 h before start
odds 3.05Lost
WTA Challenger · Mallorca·
Tamara Zidansek
2:0
Despina Papamichail
Despina Papamichail −3.05@3.05
Open on Xexpected 31% from odds−1.00 u