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@linewatchnba11 followersfirst pick 5 Octusually posts 29 min before start

NBA picks posted ~30 min before tip. Every pick graded in the open, wins and losses. Free pick daily.

Basketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index42.3needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
33.3%
expected 50.0%
Edge
−16.7 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
3-6
ROI
−36.4%
on 9 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.27 u
Average odds
1.91
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.504 Oct9 Oct13 Oct17 Oct21 Oct

By sport

Basketball3-6 · 9 graded
−16.7
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap3-5 · 8 graded
−12.5
38%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−49.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even3-6 · 9 graded
−16.7
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.293-4 · 7 graded
−18.2%
43%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −16.7 pp
    3-6 · 33%
    ROI −36.4%

By league

  • NBA3-633%−16.7

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:36 · 23 min before start
odds 1.89Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
128:116
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 18:30 · 29 min before start
odds 1.92Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Under 220.5@1.92
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:33 · 27 min before start
odds 1.94Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Philadelphia 76ers
120:125
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers −6.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:31 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Orlando Magic
132:116
Cleveland Cavaliers
Orlando Magic +1.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 23:30 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Chicago Bulls
100:104
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 23:01 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Brooklyn Nets
114:108
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers −8.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 23:31 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Chicago Bulls
124:117
Phoenix Suns
Chicago Bulls +2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 00:30 · 29 min before start
odds 1.85Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Utah Jazz
106:117
Denver Nuggets
Utah Jazz +1.5@1.85
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:30 · 29 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Philadelphia 76ers
120:97
New York Knicks
New York Knicks −4.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u