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Rodolfo Bizgra

@RBizgra184 followersfirst pick 3 Augusually posts 23 min before start

Apostador de tiempo completo y nutriólogo 🎲🥼 YOUNG RICH 🐐 Tuve Fe 👁️♎️ NBA/WNBA 🏀 - MLB ⚾️ MATEO 25:29 🔑

BasketballBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index40.7#560 on the leaderboarddown 41 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
45.5%
expected 54.3%
Edge
−8.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 32.1%, the edge is within noise
Graded
35
15-18-2
ROI
−25.8%
on 10 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.58 u
Average odds
1.86
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-1012 Aug22 Aug10 Sept29 Sept18 Oct

By sport

Basketball9-10 · 19 graded
−9.2
47%
Baseball6-8-2 · 16 graded
−8.4
43%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap6-11 · 17 graded
−20.1
35%
Totals9-6-2 · 17 graded
+6.7
60%
Match result0-1 · 1 graded
−51.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite5-3-2 · 10 graded
−0.9
63%
Even10-14 · 24 graded
−10.3
42%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−39.0
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-5 · 8 graded
−31.8%
38%
1.90…2.291-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −7.0 pp
    9-9 · 50%
  • September 2026
    −1.8 pp
    5-5-1 · 50%
    ROI −7.2%
  • October 2026
    −29.8 pp
    1-4-1 · 20%

By league

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Rodolfo Bizgra (@RBizgra) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 20:47 · 13 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 20:43 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.85 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 23:33 · 27 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 20:51 · 9 min before start
Push
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:4
Chicago White Sox
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:47 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 00:47 · 1 h before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:1
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs +1
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 27 Sept, 22:01 · 58 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Atlanta Dream
92:77
Washington Mystics
Washington Mystics +8
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 01:03 · 37 min before start
odds 1.96DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:6
Los Angeles Angels
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.96 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 23:06 · 9 min before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
3:2
Cincinnati Reds
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 23:31 · 8 min before start
Won
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
11:14
Chicago White Sox
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 22 Sept, 23:31 · 8 min before start
Lost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
11:14
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals +1
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 22 Sept, 17:49 · 5 h before start
Void
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
void
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles to win
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 00:51 · 47 min before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
5:4
Minnesota Twins
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 23:25 · 15 min before start
Push
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
7:3
Atlanta Braves
Under 10
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 19:46 · 18 min before start
Won
MLB·
Athletics
8:7
Seattle Mariners
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 12 Sept, 00:53 · 47 min before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
9:1
Texas Rangers
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 01:08 · 31 min before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
San Diego Padres
3:2
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 23:13 · 27 min before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
6:9
Miami Marlins
Under 9
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 26 Aug, 01:04 · 55 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Phoenix Mercury
84:94
Washington Mystics
Phoenix Mercury +3
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 24 Aug, 23:55 · 4 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Minnesota Lynx
66:80
Golden State Valkyries
Minnesota Lynx −5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 23 Aug, 22:55 · 4 min before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Portland Fire
100:105
Washington Mystics
Washington Mystics −4
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 21 Aug, 23:17 · 13 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Washington Mystics
84:94
Minnesota Lynx
Washington Mystics +3
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 20 Aug, 01:18 · 41 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Golden State Valkyries
66:77
Minnesota Lynx
Golden State Valkyries +3
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 19 Aug, 00:55 · 4 min before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Las Vegas Aces
82:97
Atlanta Dream
Under 180
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 18 Aug, 01:39 · 21 min before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Golden State Valkyries
78:70
Dallas Wings
Golden State Valkyries −5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 16 Aug, 20:56 · 3 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Seattle Storm
80:82
Chicago Sky
Over 175.5
Open on Xexpected 39% by model
Singleposted 15 Aug, 20:52 · 3 h before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Las Vegas Aces
87:92
Minnesota Lynx
Under 184
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 14 Aug, 23:18 · 11 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Indiana Fever
98:87
Dallas Wings
Dallas Wings +9
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 12 Aug, 01:28 · 31 min before start
Lost
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Las Vegas Aces
86:76
Washington Mystics
Washington Mystics +7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 10 Aug, 23:49 · 11 min before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Atlanta Dream
107:95
Toronto Tempo
Toronto Tempo +16
Open on Xexpected 57% by model