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Leya Siddiq

@leya655 followersfirst pick 25 Octusually posts 2 h before start

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FootballBasketball
Tipster index44.6needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
25.0%
expected 37.8%
Edge
−12.8 pp
over expectation
Graded
8
2-6
ROI
−35.9%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.48 u
Average odds
2.80
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W1, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1.5-1-0.5024 Oct27 Oct29 Oct31 Oct

By sport

Football1-5 · 6 graded
−16.7
17%
Basketball1-1 · 2 graded
−1.2
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-5 · 6 graded
−25.3
17%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
+24.8
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+37.3
100%
Even0-2 · 2 graded
−46.7
0%
Underdog1-4 · 5 graded
−9.3
20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.90…2.290-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
3.50+1-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    −12.8 pp
    2-6 · 25%
    ROI −35.9%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:03 · 2 h before start
odds 2.00Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Aston Villa −2@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:03 · 2 h before start
odds 3.61Won
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Draw@3.61
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds+2.61 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:03 · 2 h before start
odds 3.64Lost
Premier League·
Aston Villa
1:1
Fulham
Fulham −3.64@3.64
Open on Xexpected 26% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 18:00 · 2 h before start
odds 1.52Won
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
95:76
Fenerbahçe
Real Madrid −1.52@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds+0.52 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 18:00 · 2 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
EuroLeague · EuroLeague: Regular season·
Real Madrid
95:76
Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe −2.4@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 10:31 · 3 h before start
odds 2.08Lost
Premier League·
Liverpool
2:0
Brighton
Liverpool −2.08@2.08
Open on Xexpected 46% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 10:31 · 3 h before start
odds 3.96Lost
Premier League·
Liverpool
2:0
Brighton
Draw@3.96
Open on Xexpected 24% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 10:31 · 3 h before start
odds 3.16Lost
Premier League·
Liverpool
2:0
Brighton
Brighton −3.16@3.16
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds−1.00 u