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@VincentFong11.3K followersfirst pick 22 Augusually posts 2 h before start

Sports Handicapper • Follow for daily sports predictions that are proven to make you money. Verified by @SportsDataNow🚀

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index66.6#25 on the leaderboardup 9 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
73.3%
expected 48.4%
Edge
+24.9 pp
hit rate at least 52.2% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
15
11-4
ROI
+35.9%
on 14 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
1.90
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

012321 Aug6 Sept21 Sept7 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Baseball10-3 · 13 graded
+28.8
77%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−0.4
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals10-3 · 13 graded
+26.8
77%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−52.0
0%
Parlays1-0 · 1 graded
+77.5
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even10-4 · 14 graded
+21.2
71%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-2 · 6 graded
+22.3%
67%
1.90…2.296-2 · 8 graded
+46.1%
75%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +30.3 pp
    7-2 · 78%
    ROI +41.5%
  • September 2026
    +16.8 pp
    2-1 · 67%
  • October 2026
    +16.9 pp
    2-1 · 67%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:51 · 1 h before start
odds 1.95Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Over 50.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 22:53 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itVoid
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 13 Oct, 23:21 · 38 min before start
odds 1.97DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Under 6.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.97 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 23:05 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −3@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 6 Sept, 15:53 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
MLB·
Miami Marlins
10:3
Chicago Cubs
Under 8@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 4 Sept, 23:39 · 30 min before start
odds 1.83Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
3:1
Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 9@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 22:31 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
1:5
Chicago White Sox
Under 8.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 21:51 · 49 min before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:3
New York Mets
Under 8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 29 Aug, 19:40 · 29 min before start
odds 1.83Won
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
2:1
Colorado Rockies
Under 9@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 28 Aug, 23:43 · 27 min before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
4:7
Chicago White Sox
Under 9@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 27 Aug, 14:55 · 11 h before start
Won
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
6:1
Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 8.5✓
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
6:1
Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 7.5✓
Open on Xexpected 23% by model
Singleposted 26 Aug, 17:38 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
Miami Marlins
4:0
Boston Red Sox
Under 7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 25 Aug, 17:35 · 8 h before start
odds 1.83Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:1
Philadelphia Phillies
Under 8@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.83 u
Singleposted 23 Aug, 15:23 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
6:4
St. Louis Cardinals
Under 8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 17:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Won
MLB·
Miami Marlins
4:2
Washington Nationals
Under 7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.95 u
Singleposted 22 Aug, 14:39 · 8 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Under 8.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u