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J smack

@jsmack1k13 followersfirst pick 22 Augusually posts 5 h before start

sports bettor | picks every day + analysis | tap in w the best upcoming one to do it. 💰 | join me down below ⬇️

BasketballBaseballNFL & NCAAFTennis
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Tipster index34.0#744 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards to win@2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
25.0%
expected 53.0%
Edge
−28.0 pp
hit rate at most 48.7% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
12
3-9 · 1 pending
ROI
−100.0%
on 5 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.00 u
Average odds
1.87
singles with odds
Form
streak L6 · best W2, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-2022 Aug9 Sept26 Sept14 Oct1 Nov

By sport

Basketball1-4 · 5 graded
−31.6
20%
Baseball0-3 · 3 graded
−54.0
0%
NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
+5.5
50%
Tennis1-1 · 2 graded
−13.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-4 · 6 graded
−16.4
33%
Match result1-4 · 5 graded
−36.6
20%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−54.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+27.8
100%
Even2-9 · 11 graded
−33.1
18%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.290-3 · 3 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +37.5 pp
    2-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    −25.6 pp
    1-3 · 25%
  • October 2026
    −51.9 pp
    0-5 · 0%
  • November 2026
    −48.8 pp
    0-1 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 2 Nov, 06:33 · 18 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line
Singleposted 1 Nov, 18:29 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
28:24
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Oct, 18:22 · 37 min before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
90:112
Portland Trail Blazers
Utah Jazz +9.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 31 Oct, 04:52 · 18 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
121:99
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −1.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 30 Oct, 18:25 · 5 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
114:121
Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors −3.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 24 Oct, 05:04 · 3 h before start
Lost
WTA 250 · Japan Open·
Katie Boulter
0:2
Katerina Siniakova
Over 21.5 games
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 22:38 · 1 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Sept, 17:39 · 6 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
LSU Tigers
51:10
Clemson Tigers
LSU Tigers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 4 Sept, 00:47 · 53 min before start
odds 2.04DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:7
Athletics
Seattle Mariners −1.5
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 2 Sept, 07:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.59DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
7:3
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 22:36 · 4 min before start
odds 1.73DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
4:3
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 31 Aug, 08:56 · 8 h before start
Won
US Open · Men's Singles·
Jurij Rodionov
3:0
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Jurij Rodionov to win
Open on Xexpected 72% by model
Singleposted 22 Aug, 09:13 · 17 h before start
Won
WNBA · WNBA: Regular season·
Phoenix Mercury
89:99
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta Dream −1.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model