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Henny’s Picks

@hennyathalf393 followersfirst pick 15 Augusually posts 4 h before start

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BaseballHockeyNFL & NCAAFFootball
Tipster index56.9#129 on the leaderboardup 39 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
73.3%
expected 63.0%
Edge
+10.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 52.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
15
11-4
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
1.50
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W4, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.514 Aug30 Aug15 Sept1 Oct17 Oct

By sport

Baseball7-2 · 9 graded
+14.1
78%
NFL & NCAAF2-0 · 2 graded
+28.9
100%
Football1-1 · 2 graded
−6.0
50%
Hockey1-1 · 2 graded
−8.9
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals10-3 · 13 graded
+15.8
77%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−74.9
0%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+24.8
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite10-2 · 12 graded
+17.0
83%
Even0-2 · 2 graded
−55.9
0%
Underdog1-0 · 1 graded
+62.8
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +13.4 pp
    3-1 · 75%
  • September 2026
    +8.8 pp
    5-2 · 71%
  • October 2026
    +10.0 pp
    3-1 · 75%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 16 Oct, 14:14 · 12 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 17:09 · 7 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
New England Patriots to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 15:08 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
North Texas Mean Green
50:10
Charlotte 49ers
Over 55
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 17:18 · 6 h before start
Won
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
5:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 15:40 · 2 h before start
Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
14:4
Houston Astros
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 16:16 · 3 h before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Slavia Prague
2:3
Lens
Slavia Prague +0.25
Open on Xexpected 75% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 16:07 · 38 min before start
Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Barcelona
5:1
Feyenoord
Over 4.25
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 16:09 · 1 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
5:2
Los Angeles Angels
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 16:08 · 1 h before start
Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
4:5
Atlanta Braves
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 5 Sept, 16:01 · 7 h before start
Won
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
4:6
Minnesota Twins
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 28 Aug, 16:17 · 6 h before start
Won
MLB·
Washington Nationals
9:2
Miami Marlins
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 24 Aug, 15:35 · 10 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
0:7
Chicago Cubs
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 21 Aug, 16:49 · 6 h before start
Won
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
7:6
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 15 Aug, 17:08 · 1 h before start
Won
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
4:8
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 61% by model