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LUCAS DFS ⚒️

@grey_lucas1781229 followersfirst pick 2 Octusually posts 9 h before start

Positive Ev Sports Bettor.Math Over Everything 🏀🏐🏑⚽⛳ Discord: Quick play,Link Alternate Parlay legs and more .. Tap on the LINK IN MY BIO

NFL & NCAAFHockeyTennisBasketballFootballBaseball
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Tipster index54.6#198 on the leaderboarddown 22 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
-:-
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +20.5 +3
Hit rate
59.7%
expected 56.9%
Edge
+2.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 52.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
129
77-52 · 1 pending
ROI
−2.1%
on 92 picks with odds · max drawdown −8.79 u
Average odds
1.72
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W10, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

02462 Oct7 Oct12 Oct17 Oct22 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF22-21 · 43 graded
−2.5
51%
Hockey23-14 · 37 graded
+3.8
62%
Tennis21-10 · 31 graded
+8.6
68%
Basketball6-3 · 9 graded
+14.0
67%
Football4-2 · 6 graded
+0.0
67%
Baseball1-2 · 3 graded
−22.3
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result55-32 · 87 graded
+3.1
63%
Handicap17-12 · 29 graded
+2.4
59%
Parlays1-6 · 7 graded
−2.8
14%
Totals4-2 · 6 graded
+7.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite48-15 · 63 graded
+7.8
76%
Even27-27 · 54 graded
−0.8
50%
Underdog1-4 · 5 graded
−13.3
20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5019-6 · 25 graded
+2.6%
76%
1.50…1.8927-17 · 44 graded
+3.9%
61%
1.90…2.296-8 · 14 graded
−16.9%
43%
2.30…3.493-3 · 6 graded
+18.7%
50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +2.8 pp
    77-52 · 60%
    ROI −2.1%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Parlay · 4posted 22 Oct, 22:01 · 42 h before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
-:-
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +20.5◷
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
-:-
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers −6.5◷
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCF Knights
-:-
BYU Cougars
BYU Cougars −6.5◷
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels +3.5◷
Open on Xexpected 5% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 20:36 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Miami Heat to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:02 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Won
NBA · Regular season·
Memphis Grizzlies
123:103
Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies to win@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 07:24 · 17 h before start
odds 4.50Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to win@4.50
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 6posted 19 Oct, 07:18 · 16 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers to win✓
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Golden State Valkyries
65:79
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta Dream +4.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
Anaheim Ducks
New York Rangers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth to win✓
Open on Xexpected 7% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 00:16 · 14 min before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Over 5.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:37 · 23 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Milwaukee Bucks
104:125
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls −1.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:27 · 14 h before start
Lost
ATP Challenger · Catania, Italy·
Pavel Lagutin
0:2
Massimo Giunta
Pavel Lagutin to win
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:27 · 16 h before start
Won
ATP Challenger · Catania, Italy·
Carlo Alberto Caniato
1:2
Marvin Moeller
Marvin Moeller to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:27 · 18 h before start
Won
ATP Challenger · Catania, Italy·
Gianluca Cadenasso
2:0
Svyatoslav Gulin
Gianluca Cadenasso to win
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:20 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 21:20 · 3 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 19:33 · 4 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Missouri State Bears +3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Parlay · 7posted 14 Oct, 19:33 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win✓
NBA · Pre-season·
Boston Celtics
114:93
Charlotte Hornets
Boston Celtics to win✓
NBA · Pre-season·
LA Clippers
122:110
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri State Bears
24:21
Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State Owls +3.5✓
Open on Xexpected 3% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 10:41 · 13 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 10:41 · 14 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:04 · 6 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Toronto Raptors
148:98
New York Knicks
Toronto Raptors −10.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:04 · 6 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Pre-season·
Orlando Magic
132:116
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:04 · 7 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
114:112
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers +10.5
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 17:04 · 9 h before start
Won
NBA · Pre-season·
LA Lakers
89:101
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors +4.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 13 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
4:2
Washington Capitals
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 13 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
4:3
Buffalo Sabres
penalties
Montreal Canadiens to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 13 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
4:1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 14 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:7
St. Louis Blues
Ottawa Senators to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 14 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
3:2
Vancouver Canucks
New York Islanders to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 14 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
5:3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh Penguins to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 15 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
2:5
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.74 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 16 h before start
odds 1.57DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Calgary Flames
Anaheim Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:53 · 17 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Los Angeles Kings
1:4
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.80 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 09:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Champions League · League Stage·
Arsenal
3:0
Lille
Arsenal to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u