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Freeze Picks

@freezepicks20 followersfirst pick 6 Augusually posts 4 h before start

🏈 NFL & ⚾ MLB Picks 🧊 Free Picks | No Guarantees 📊 Spreads, Totals & Matchup Analysis

NFL & NCAAFBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index53.5#223 on the leaderboarddown 100 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
58.3%
expected 52.2%
Edge
+6.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 35.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
13
7-5-1
ROI
+32.3%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.92
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-1-0.500.515 Aug24 Aug11 Sept30 Sept19 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF5-4 · 9 graded
+3.3
56%
Baseball2-1-1 · 4 graded
+14.7
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals3-3-1 · 7 graded
−7.1
50%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
+3.3
50%
Match result2-0 · 2 graded
+51.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−17.0
50%
Even6-4-1 · 11 graded
+10.8
60%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.292-1-1 · 4 graded
-
67%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +51.5 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • September 2026
    −53.4 pp
    0-2-1 · 0%
  • October 2026
    +14.3 pp
    6-3 · 67%
    ROI +51.2%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Freeze Picks (@freezepicks) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:50 · 29 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 53.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:39 · 4 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +3.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:59 · 1 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
45:17
Las Vegas Raiders
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 14:02 · 10 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 4 Oct, 17:09 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:30
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 16:54 · 6 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
20:24
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams −3.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 4 Oct, 07:37 · 6 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Under 46.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 13:51 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
1:0
New York Yankees
Under 7
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.89 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 18:41 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Over 54.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 13 Sept, 18:51 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Under 44@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 19:27 · 43 min before start
odds 1.97DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
4:3
Texas Rangers
Over 7
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 19:27 · 4 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
0:2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 8
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 6 Aug, 01:40 · 19 h before start
odds 2.02DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
0:11
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+1.02 u