Mr Green Bets

@fraile_el81 followersfirst pick 21 Octusually posts 6 h before start

🟢 MR GREEN BETS | ⚽ Fútbol & 🎾 Tenis 📊 Análisis estadístico y picks razonados 🎯 Pronósticos basados en datos 🔎 Aquí se analiza, no se adivina

FootballTennis

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Tipster index56.1#204 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Hit rate

63.6%

expected 52.3%

Edge

+11.3 pp

95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.5%, the edge is within noise

Graded

7-4

ROI

+12.8%

on 5 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u

Average odds

1.86

singles with odds

Form

streak W1 · best W4, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

By sport

Football5-3 · 8 graded

+10.7

63%

Tennis2-1 · 3 graded

+12.7

67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals2-1 · 3 graded

+12.7

67%

Handicap2-1 · 3 graded

+12.8

67%

Double chance2-1 · 3 graded

+9.1

67%

Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded

+42.9

100%

Parlays0-1 · 1 graded

−22.5

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded

+16.8

100%

Even5-2 · 7 graded

+20.2

71%

Underdog0-1 · 1 graded

−28.6

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded

67%

1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded

100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks

October 2026
+11.3 pp
7-4 · 64%
ROI +12.8%

By league

Champions League5-271%+15.5
ATP 5002-167%+12.7

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Picks

Singleposted 31 Oct, 13:22 · 47 min before start

odds 1.70Won

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·31 Oct, 14:10

Daniil Medvedev

0:2

Carlos Alcaraz

Over 21.5 games@1.70

Singleposted 29 Oct, 11:21 · 6 h before start

odds 1.80Lost

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·29 Oct, 17:40

Alexander Zverev

2:0

Tallon Griekspoor

Over 22.5 games@1.80

Singleposted 29 Oct, 10:32 · 5 h before start

odds 1.80Won

ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·29 Oct, 15:40

Nikoloz Basilashvili

0:2

Carlos Alcaraz

Over 19.5 games@1.80

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 4 h before start

Lost

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 16:45

Como 1907

4:1

Manchester United

Manchester United or draw

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 4 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 16:45

Lille

2:4

Galatasaray

Both teams to score: yes

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 6 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Bayern Munich

2:2

Arsenal

Arsenal or draw

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 6 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Real Betis

1:0

Feyenoord

Feyenoord +2.5

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 6 h before start

Won

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Club Brugge

3:0

Lens

Club Brugge or draw

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:46 · 6 h before start

Lost

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Real Madrid

4:1

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig −1

Parlay · 4posted 21 Oct, 12:45 · 6 h before start

odds 3.65Lost

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Aston Villa

3:1

Viking

Aston Villa to win✓

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Bayern Munich

2:2

Arsenal

Arsenal or draw✓

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Club Brugge

3:0

Lens

Club Brugge or draw✓

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Real Betis

1:0

Feyenoord

Over 2.5✕

Singleposted 21 Oct, 12:43 · 6 h before start

odds 2.14Won

Champions League · League Stage·21 Oct, 19:00

Real Madrid

4:1

RB Leipzig

Real Madrid −1