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@TicketLabTips31 followersfirst pick 25 Septusually posts 11 h before start

Free football & US sports tips when there's a clear edge. Every result tracked. https://t.co/2Y4jfua0sh · IG: ticketlabtips · NFA · 18+ · Gamble responsibly

FootballNFL & NCAAFBaseballTennis
Tipster index56.3#144 on the leaderboardup 86 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
54.9%
expected 49.9%
Edge
+5.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
51
28-23
ROI
+12.5%
on 41 picks with odds · max drawdown −5.17 u
Average odds
1.95
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

01224 Sept2 Oct9 Oct16 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Football26-19 · 45 graded
+8.1
58%
NFL & NCAAF2-2 · 4 graded
−1.1
50%
Tennis0-1 · 1 graded
−58.7
0%
Baseball0-1 · 1 graded
−46.2
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals11-10 · 21 graded
−1.8
52%
Parlays9-5 · 14 graded
+24.2
64%
Match result5-4 · 9 graded
+4.0
56%
Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+11.0
67%
Double chance0-2 · 2 graded
−57.5
0%
Both teams to score1-1 · 2 graded
−0.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite7-3 · 10 graded
+0.0
70%
Even11-13 · 24 graded
−3.9
46%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
+2.8
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.504-1 · 5 graded
+1.8%
80%
1.50…1.896-6 · 12 graded
−9.6%
50%
1.90…2.294-6 · 10 graded
−14.5%
40%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
3.50+0-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +7.1 pp
    6-4 · 60%
    ROI +15.2%
  • October 2026
    +4.5 pp
    22-19 · 54%
    ROI +12.1%

By league

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Picks

Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 05:11 · 14 h before start
odds 1.81Won
Championship·
Bolton Wanderers
1:5
Middlesbrough
Both teams to score: yes@1.81✓
Championship·
Bolton Wanderers
1:5
Middlesbrough
Over 2.5@1.81✓
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:15 · 14 h before start
odds 1.86Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Beşiktaş
2:2
Crystal Palace
Over 3@1.86
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.86 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:14 · 12 h before start
odds 1.66Lost
Europa League · League Stage·
Lech Poznan
1:1
Sunderland
Sunderland to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 05:14 · 12 h before start
Lost
Europa League · League Stage·
Lech Poznan
1:1
Sunderland
Both teams to score: no
Open on Xexpected 48% by model
Same-game combo · 3posted 21 Oct, 05:11 · 14 h before start
odds 2.05Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Real Madrid to win@2.05✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Over 2.5@2.05✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Madrid
4:1
RB Leipzig
Both teams to score: yes@2.05✓
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.05 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Oct, 05:10 · 14 h before start
odds 2.23Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Aston Villa
3:1
Viking
Aston Villa to win@2.23✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Aston Villa
3:1
Viking
Both teams to score: yes@2.23✓
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.23 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 05:11 · 14 h before start
odds 1.49Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
FC Porto
0:1
PSV Eindhoven
Over 2.5@1.49
Open on Xexpected 64% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 05:11 · 14 h before start
odds 2.64Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Liverpool
4:3
Villarreal
Liverpool to win@2.64✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Liverpool
4:3
Villarreal
Both teams to score: yes@2.64✓
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds+1.64 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 05:10 · 14 h before start
odds 1.17Won
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
4:0
Slovan Bratislava
AS Roma to win@1.17
Open on Xexpected 81% from odds+0.17 u
Parlay · 2posted 19 Oct, 07:52 · 11 h before start
odds 3.61Won
Premier League·
Tottenham Hotspur
3:1
Coventry City
Tottenham Hotspur to win@1.90✓
Premier League·
Tottenham Hotspur
3:1
Coventry City
Under 4.5@1.90✓
Open on Xexpected 25% from odds+2.61 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 07:46 · 11 h before start
odds 1.21Won
Serie A·
Parma
0:3
Torino
Under 3.5@1.21
Open on Xexpected 79% from odds+0.21 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 07:45 · 9 h before start
odds 1.54Lost
Süper Lig·
Trabzonspor
2:0
Beşiktaş
Over 2.5@1.54
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 07:35 · 9 h before start
odds 1.76Lost
Serie A·
Monza
4:0
Cagliari
Cagliari or draw@1.76✕
Serie A·
Monza
4:0
Cagliari
Over 0.5@1.76✓
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Oct, 07:34 · 12 h before start
odds 2.14Lost
Primeira Liga·
SC Braga
1:2
Gil Vicente
SC Braga to win@2.14✕
Primeira Liga·
SC Braga
1:2
Gil Vicente
Under 3.5@2.14✓
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 07:09 · 8 h before start
odds 1.76Won
Eerste Divisie·
MVV Maastricht
1:5
Heracles
Heracles to win@1.76✓
Eerste Divisie·
MVV Maastricht
1:5
Heracles
Over 2.5@1.76✓
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.76 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 07:08 · 8 h before start
odds 1.65Won
Eliteserien·
Molde
6:1
IK Start
Molde to win@1.65✓
Eliteserien·
Molde
6:1
IK Start
Over 2.5@1.65✓
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.65 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 18 Oct, 07:08 · 8 h before start
odds 1.87Won
Premier League·
Nottingham Forest
0:1
Arsenal
Arsenal to win@1.87✓
Premier League·
Nottingham Forest
0:1
Arsenal
Under 4.5@1.87✓
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:01 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
31:34
Houston Texans
Under 42.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 09:37 · 9 h before start
odds 2.41Won
Serie A·
Frosinone
4:2
Sassuolo
Frosinone to win@2.41
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.41 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 16 Oct, 09:37 · 9 h before start
Lost
Serie A·
Frosinone
4:2
Sassuolo
Frosinone to win✓
Serie A·
Frosinone
4:2
Sassuolo
Sassuolo or draw✕
Open on Xexpected 19% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 16 Oct, 06:29 · 13 h before start
Lost
Championship·
Burnley
1:2
Wolves
Burnley to win✕
Championship·
Burnley
1:2
Wolves
Wolves or draw✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 10:16 · 9 h before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Jagiellonia Bialystok
3:1
Ararat Armenia
Jagiellonia Bialystok to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.44 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 07:55 · 11 h before start
odds 1.68Won
Champions League · League Stage·
Atletico Madrid
2:0
Manchester United
Under 3.5@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 07:52 · 16 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Under 54.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 09:35 · 7 h before start
odds 2.10Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
31:7
Chicago Bears
Under 46.5@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.10 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 05:21 · 11 h before start
odds 1.84Lost
Croatia · HNL·
Slaven
4:1
Rijeka
Draw@1.84
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 05:25 · 13 h before start
odds 2.25Won
Serie C · Serie C: Group B·
Spezia
2:0
Gubbio
Under 2.5@2.25
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.25 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 05:19 · 9 h before start
odds 1.74Lost
Premier League·
Chelsea
5:1
AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth +1@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 06:00 · 12 h before start
odds 1.82Lost
Liga 1·
Sepsi OSK
0:2
Dinamo Bucuresti
Sepsi OSK or draw@1.82
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 05:55 · 9 h before start
odds 2.10Lost
Romania · Liga II·
ASU Politehnica Timisoara
1:1
Steaua Bucuresti
Over 3@2.10
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u