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Open picks 5
Games not played yetWins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 2 months with 5+ picks- September 2026+2.6 pp9-6 · 60%
- October 2026+13.3 pp50-20-1 · 71%ROI +6.9%
By league
- NFL21-4-184%+21.6
- UEFA Nations League11-761%−5.5
- NHL9-282%+17.5
- ATP 10006-186%+27.8
- WTA 10004-357%+0.2
- NCAAF4-267%+9.4
- MLB · USA1-150%−5.0
- ATP Challenger0-10%−64.3
- WTA Challenger1-0100%+36.9
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