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@elitelocks_19 followersfirst pick 14 Septusually posts 4 h before start

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FootballHockeyNFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
Tipster index61.9#72 on the leaderboarddown 11 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
-:-
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers +1.5@1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
Brooklyn Nets
Boston Celtics to win +7
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
-:-
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars to win@1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues to win@1.82DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
-:-
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes to win@1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
-:-
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win@1.77DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
67.2%
expected 58.6%
Edge
+8.6 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 57.3%, the edge is within noise
Graded
68
45-22-1 · 12 pending
ROI
+10.6%
on 52 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.32 u
Average odds
1.65
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W13, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2024613 Sept24 Sept4 Oct15 Oct25 Oct

By sport

Football21-7 · 28 graded
+10.4
75%
NFL & NCAAF13-6-1 · 20 graded
+15.9
68%
Hockey8-3 · 11 graded
+9.3
73%
Basketball2-4 · 6 graded
−12.8
33%
Baseball1-2 · 3 graded
−14.2
33%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result35-15-1 · 51 graded
+9.8
70%
Handicap10-2 · 12 graded
+9.5
83%
Parlays0-5 · 5 graded
−6.0
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite30-4-1 · 35 graded
+15.1
88%
Even14-12 · 26 graded
+2.6
54%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.0
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5019-2 · 21 graded
+20.6%
90%
1.50…1.8911-7-1 · 19 graded
+1.3%
61%
1.90…2.295-5 · 10 graded
+4.3%
50%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −14.2 pp
    1-2 · 33%
  • October 2026
    +9.7 pp
    44-20-1 · 69%
    ROI +13.0%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 12 h before start
odds 1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
-:-
Columbus Blue Jackets
Philadelphia Flyers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
-:-
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.82DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
St. Louis Blues to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
-:-
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.77DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
-:-
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
-:-
Los Angeles Kings
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
odds 1.41DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
-:-
New York Islanders
New York Islanders +1.5
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 14 h before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
-:-
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild +1.5
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 15 h before start
odds 1.65DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
-:-
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 15 h before start
odds 1.49DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
-:-
Vancouver Canucks
Anaheim Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line
Singleposted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 16 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
-:-
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line
Parlay · 8posted 27 Oct, 10:30 · 13 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
Brooklyn Nets
Boston Celtics to win◷
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
-:-
Detroit Pistons
New York Knicks to win◷
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
-:-
Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs −14.5◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
-:-
New Jersey Devils
Dallas Stars to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
-:-
Boston Bruins
Carolina Hurricanes to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
-:-
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vegas Golden Knights
-:-
Ottawa Senators
Vegas Golden Knights to win◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
-:-
Buffalo Sabres
Buffalo Sabres to win◷
Open on Xexpected 2% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 22 min before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
81:128
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.70 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 1.29DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
102:112
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line+0.29 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
105:121
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −6.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 19:37 · 3 h before start
odds 2.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.34Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
16:10
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings to win@1.34
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds+0.34 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.61Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
13:43
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers to win@1.61
Open on Xexpected 59% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.79Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
24:27
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.79 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.43Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
16:30
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win@1.43
Open on Xexpected 67% from odds+0.43 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.47Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
21:35
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Rams to win@1.47
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.47 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:32 · 4 days before start
odds 1.58Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.58 u
Parlay · 10posted 20 Oct, 09:00 · 8 h before start
Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
New York Knicks
100:106
Philadelphia 76ers
New York Knicks to win✕
NBA · Regular season·
San Antonio Spurs
104:116
Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
FIU Golden Panthers
23:26
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
FIU Golden Panthers to win✕
Champions League · League Stage·
Sabah FK
1:2
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5✓
Champions League · League Stage·
Manchester City
5:1
AEK Athens
Manchester City to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:3
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
3:6
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
4:3
Minnesota Wild
Edmonton Oilers to win✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Boston Bruins
Dallas Stars to win✓
Open on Xexpected 1% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
AZ Alkmaar
2:1
Hapoel Beer Sheva
AZ Alkmaar to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
Lech Poznan
0:4
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
Lyon
3:2
Crystal Palace
Lyon +1.5
Open on Xexpected 85% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
Won
Europa League · League Stage·
NK Celje
0:3
Omonia Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia +1.5
Open on Xexpected 80% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Europa League · League Stage·
FC Salzburg
0:4
AC Milan
AC Milan to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.95 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:35 · 9 min before start
odds 1.46DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Europa League · League Stage·
Sparta Prague
1:1
Lillestroem
Sparta Prague to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u