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@bigilocks108 followersfirst pick 14 Augusually posts 5 h before start

Sports Bettor | 100% Transparent & Proven long-term Profitable I Reward for Passion

BaseballNFL & NCAAFFootballTennis
Tipster index51.9#184 on the leaderboarddown 69 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
35.6%
expected 34.3%
Edge
+1.3 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 27.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
90
32-58
ROI
−12.1%
on 47 picks with odds · max drawdown −13.28 u
Average odds
2.06
singles with odds
Form
streak L4 · best W5, worst L8

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-20213 Aug28 Aug12 Sept27 Sept11 Oct

By sport

Baseball19-36 · 55 graded
+1.5
35%
NFL & NCAAF7-19 · 26 graded
−6.4
27%
Football6-1 · 7 graded
+29.7
86%
Tennis0-2 · 2 graded
−4.6
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays8-38 · 46 graded
+3.1
17%
Match result13-11 · 24 graded
+1.9
54%
Totals8-5 · 13 graded
+1.7
62%
Handicap3-4 · 7 graded
−14.0
43%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite8-7 · 15 graded
−14.2
53%
Even14-11 · 25 graded
+3.9
56%
Underdog2-2 · 4 graded
+21.3
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.892-2 · 4 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.292-3 · 5 graded
−23.0%
40%
2.30…3.492-0 · 2 graded
-
100%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −11.8 pp
    1-5 · 17%
  • September 2026
    +3.6 pp
    31-49 · 39%
    ROI +3.2%
  • October 2026
    −25.4 pp
    0-4 · 0%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 11 Oct, 12:24 · 8 h before start
odds 3.42Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
17:23
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks to win✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions to win✓
Open on Xexpected 25% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 10 Oct, 22:38 · 4 h before start
odds 3.36Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona State Sun Devils
30:12
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Arizona State Sun Devils −20.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Fresno State Bulldogs
31:38
Boise State Broncos
Boise State Broncos −6.5✓
Open on Xexpected 27% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 10 Oct, 17:15 · 2 h before start
odds 2.01Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Vanderbilt Commodores
17:52
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels to win✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
California Golden Bears
25:20
Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech Hokies to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Oregon Ducks to win✕
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 3 Oct, 22:23 · 37 min before start
odds 11.97Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
TCU Horned Frogs
10:17
BYU Cougars
Under 49.5✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
13:30
Indianapolis Colts
Washington Commanders +10.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Florida Bulls
13:17
Temple Owls
South Florida Bulls to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado Buffaloes
7:29
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech Red Raiders −13.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona State Sun Devils
19:55
Baylor Bears
Under 52.5✕
Open on Xexpected 7% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 14:10 · 4 h before start
Won
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
1:9
Chicago White Sox
Over 8.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 16:44 · 32 h before start
odds 3.20Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons to win@3.20
Open on Xexpected 30% from odds+2.20 u
Parlay · 4posted 23 Sept, 16:40 · 7 h before start
odds 17.10Lost
MLB·
Kansas City Royals
5:4
Chicago White Sox
Kansas City Royals to win✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:3
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs −1.5✕
MLB·
Texas Rangers
2:7
New York Mets
New York Mets to win✓
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
3:5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks −1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 5% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 20 Sept, 17:34 · 3 h before start
odds 2.01Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
37:20
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs to win✓
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.01 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 13:52 · 3 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
17:24
New Orleans Saints
Over 46.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 15:39 · 20 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
28:20
North Carolina Tar Heels
Under 44.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Parlay · 5posted 18 Sept, 23:42 · 41 h before start
odds 7.22Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
6:20
Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans to win@1.74✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
20:13
Jacksonville Jaguars
Denver Broncos to win@1.68✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
7:31
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win@1.50✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Dallas Cowboys
37:20
Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.50✓
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
35:13
Miami Dolphins
San Francisco 49ers to win@1.10✓
Open on Xexpected 11% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 18 Sept, 15:40 · 7 h before start
odds 14.48Lost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
6:4
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds to win✓
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
8:5
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals +1.5✕
MLB·
Baltimore Orioles
5:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Baltimore Orioles to win✕
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:4
Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays to win✕
Open on Xexpected 6% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 14:42 · 9 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
28:26
Houston Cougars
Over 52.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Singleposted 17 Sept, 14:12 · 2 h before start
odds 1.70Lost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
7:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.70
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 16 Sept, 20:08 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
4:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win✓
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
6:2
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✕
MLB·
Washington Nationals
0:3
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
8:4
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs to win✓
Open on Xexpected 7% by model
Parlay · 4posted 16 Sept, 16:19 · 7 h before start
Lost
MLB·
New York Mets
1:7
Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles to win✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
8:4
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs to win✓
MLB·
Texas Rangers
7:3
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win✕
MLB·
Houston Astros
2:5
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals to win✓
Open on Xexpected 6% by model
Parlay · 4posted 16 Sept, 16:18 · 3 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:1
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers to win✕
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
4:3
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
8:4
Atlanta Braves
Chicago Cubs to win✓
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
3:9
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 11% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 14:11 · 3 h before start
odds 2.38Won
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
5:6
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants to win@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.38 u
Parlay · 2posted 15 Sept, 18:28 · 4 h before start
odds 2.07Won
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✓
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:1
Athletics
Tampa Bay Rays to win✓
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds+1.07 u
Parlay · 2posted 15 Sept, 18:07 · 38 min before start
Won
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
West Ham United
2:3
Fulham
Over 1.5✓
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
West Ham United
2:3
Fulham
Fulham or draw✓
Open on Xexpected 34% by model
Parlay · 4posted 15 Sept, 16:20 · 6 h before start
odds 11.10Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:1
Athletics
Athletics +1.5✓
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 8.5✓
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
1:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers −1.5✓
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
7:6
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win✓
Open on Xexpected 7% from odds+10.10 u
Parlay · 5posted 15 Sept, 15:44 · 7 h before start
odds 12.15Lost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
7:6
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win✓
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
1:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win✓
MLB·
Washington Nationals
6:3
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win✕
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
1:8
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win✓
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
3:6
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves to win✓
Open on Xexpected 6% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 14 Sept, 17:09 · 6 h before start
odds 6.12Lost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win✕
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
2:1
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals to win✓
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
8:7
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins to win✕
Open on Xexpected 14% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 14 Sept, 17:08 · 6 h before start
odds 9.69Lost
MLB·
Cleveland Guardians
3:7
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win✕
MLB·
New York Mets
1:2
Baltimore Orioles
New York Mets to win✕
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
3:8
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win✓
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
8:7
Miami Marlins
Arizona Diamondbacks to win✓
Open on Xexpected 9% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 14:53 · 9 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 66% by model
Parlay · 2posted 13 Sept, 19:49 · 36 min before start
odds 1.94Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Chargers
14:26
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers −4.5✕
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 5posted 13 Sept, 15:48 · 1 h before start
odds 12.56Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Houston Texans
31:36
Buffalo Bills
Houston Texans to win✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Carolina Panthers
37:59
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Minnesota Vikings
39:22
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Giants
28:20
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win✕
Open on Xexpected 6% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 13 Sept, 15:47 · 1 h before start
odds 20.09Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
20:13
Atlanta Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
34:10
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns to win✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Tennessee Titans
10:23
New York Jets
New York Jets to win✓
NFL · Regular Season·
Philadelphia Eagles
24:22
Washington Commanders
Philadelphia Eagles to win✓
Open on Xexpected 4% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 12 Sept, 16:17 · 3 h before start
odds 16.93Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
13:38
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs to win@1.91✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Illinois Fighting Illini
27:31
Duke Blue Devils
Duke Blue Devils to win@2.90✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Massachusetts Minutemen
37:10
Sacred Heart Pioneers
Sacred Heart Pioneers +23.5@1.93✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Syracuse Orange
18:21
California Golden Bears
Syracuse Orange to win@1.59✕
Open on Xexpected 5% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 12 Sept, 13:43 · 3 h before start
odds 12.85Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami RedHawks
45:7
Holy Cross Crusaders
Holy Cross Crusaders +31.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
21:13
Northern Colorado Bears
Northern Colorado Bears +23.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bearcats
62:10
Western Carolina Catamounts
Under 61.5✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
30:20
Cal Poly Mustangs
Under 57.5✓
Open on Xexpected 6% from odds−1.00 u