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Wins above expectation
Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.
By sport
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By market
Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
Favourites and underdogs
Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.
By odds
Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).
By month
Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks- August 2026−7.4 pp29-30 · 49%ROI −22.8%
- September 2026−5.2 pp21-20 · 51%ROI −14.5%
- October 2026+13.3 pp21-7 · 75%ROI +10.0%
By league
- ATP 100013-1057%+0.5
- ATP 25010-1343%−13.4
- NHL13-476%+11.5
- MLB · USA9-756%−3.4
- WTA 10007-847%−11.6
- ATP Challenger2-529%−24.6
- WTA 2504-267%+12.4
- WTA Challenger3-260%+5.6
- ATP 5003-260%+4.3
- WTA 5003-175%+22.2
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