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Arthur Marie

@arthurmrie723 followersfirst pick 18 Septusually posts 23 h before start

Founder of https://t.co/4ov8tuENNF, the #1 creator agency for padel & tennis 🎾 1B+ views · 100+ brands · $50K/mo Building new things ☺️

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Tipster index53.2#156 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
AFC Champions League Elite · AFC Champions League Elite: East·
Buriram United
-:-
Beijing Guoan
Over 2
Hit rate
80.0%
expected 68.8%
Edge
+11.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
12
4-1-7 · 1 pending
ROI
-
posts no odds
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak W4 · best W4, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.200.20.418 Sept24 Sept30 Sept5 Oct11 Oct

By sport

Football3-0-4 · 7 graded
+4.7
100%
Tennis1-1-3 · 5 graded
+21.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals3-1-7 · 11 graded
+1.5
75%
Match result1-0 · 1 graded
+50.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-0-4 · 7 graded
+4.7
100%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+50.3
100%
Underdog0-1-3 · 4 graded
−8.1
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +11.2 pp
    4-1-3 · 80%
  • October 2026
    0.0 pp
    0-0-4 · -

By league

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Arthur Marie (@arthurmrie) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 14:01 · 46 h before start
Pending
AFC Champions League Elite · AFC Champions League Elite: East·
Buriram United
-:-
Beijing Guoan
Over 2
Open on Xexpected 78% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:20 · 15 h before start
Push
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Francisco Cerundolo
1:2
Jakub Mensik
Over 3 sets
Open on Xexpected 8% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 16:32 · 19 h before start
Push
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Qinwen Zheng
2:0
Mirra Andreeva
Over 2 sets
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 7 Oct, 07:15 · 2 days before start
Push
Super League·
Qingdao Hainiu
0:3
Beijing Guoan
Over 3
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 11:08 · 23 h before start
Push
Japan · Emperor's Cup·
FC Tokyo
4:0
Shonan Bellmare
Over 4
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 25 Sept, 17:04 · 43 h before start
Won
International Friendlies · Friendlies·
China
0:3
New Zealand
Over 1
Open on Xexpected 96% by model
Singleposted 23 Sept, 09:44 · 2 days before start
Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Italy
0:2
Belgium
Over 1
Open on Xexpected 95% by model
Singleposted 22 Sept, 16:30 · 7 h before start
Won
ATP Challenger · San Diego 2, USA·
Darwin Blanch
2:1
Jeffrey John Wolf
Darwin Blanch to win
Open on Xexpected 50% by model
Singleposted 20 Sept, 09:59 · 6 h before start
Won
Canada · Premier League·
Atletico Ottawa
0:2
Supra du Quebec
Over 1
Open on Xexpected 95% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 10:04 · 8 h before start
Push
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Learner Tien
Over 2 sets
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 20:18 · 19 h before start
Lost
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jakub Mensik
2:0
Ben Shelton
Over 4 sets
Open on Xexpected 8% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 20:15 · 28 h before start
Push
Serie A·
Sao Paulo
1:0
Internacional
Over 1
Open on Xexpected 95% by model
Singleposted 18 Sept, 16:29 · 35 h before start
Push
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
CF America
2:2
CD Guadalajara
Over 4
Open on Xexpected 35% by model