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archie ⚡️

@archieventura231.5K followersfirst pick 4 Augusually posts 1 h before start

FREE picks and parlays | Student of the game. | NHL NFL MLB FUT and 77. Use code “ARCHIE” on @PropsEdge for 20% off.

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Tipster index65.4#34 on the leaderboardup 14 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Both teams to score: yes@1.79
Hit rate
60.7%
expected 44.8%
Edge
+16.0 pp
hit rate at least 45.3% with 95% confidence: the edge is not luck
Graded
28
17-11 · 1 pending
ROI
+34.7%
on 16 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.09 u
Average odds
2.09
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W5, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

0245 Aug24 Aug13 Sept3 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Football12-7 · 19 graded
+20.5
63%
Hockey3-2 · 5 graded
+14.7
60%
NFL & NCAAF2-2 · 4 graded
−4.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays9-8 · 17 graded
+12.7
53%
Totals3-1 · 4 graded
+23.2
75%
Match result2-2 · 4 graded
+2.5
50%
Both teams to score2-0 · 2 graded
+49.0
100%
Handicap1-0 · 1 graded
+30.4
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-2 · 3 graded
−32.9
33%
Even5-1 · 6 graded
+32.0
83%
Underdog2-0 · 2 graded
+69.0
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.50…1.893-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
1.90…2.292-0 · 2 graded
-
100%
2.30…3.492-0 · 2 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 3 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +20.6 pp
    10-6 · 63%
    ROI +26.4%
  • September 2026
    +11.7 pp
    3-2 · 60%
  • October 2026
    +8.5 pp
    4-3 · 57%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 22:34 · 2 h before start
odds 1.79Pending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Both teams to score: yes@1.79
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds
Parlay · 4posted 22 Oct, 21:49 · 1 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks +1.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Both teams to score: yes✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win✕
Open on Xexpected 24% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:20 · 2 h before start
odds 1.78Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Boston Bruins
Under 6@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:20 · 2 h before start
odds 2.11Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Boston Bruins
Both teams to score: yes@2.11
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.11 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:22 · 8 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Parlay · 3posted 18 Oct, 12:46 · 13 min before start
Won
Premier League·
Leeds United
1:1
Manchester United
Under 3.5✓
Serie A·
AC Milan
3:2
Atalanta
AC Milan or draw✓
Serie A·
AC Milan
3:2
Atalanta
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 20:20 · 5 h before start
odds 1.81Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Over 6.5@1.81
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.81 u
Singleposted 13 Oct, 21:50 · 3 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
2:3
Colorado Avalanche
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Sept, 23:46 · 28 min before start
odds 2.00Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
New York Giants +10.5@2.00✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Under 55.5@2.00✓
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 2posted 20 Sept, 00:02 · 1 h before start
Lost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Monterrey
1:0
Cruz Azul
Both teams to score: yes✕
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
CF America
2:2
CD Guadalajara
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 23:36 · 44 min before start
odds 2.80Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Under 44.5@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds+1.80 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 23:36 · 44 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 2 Sept, 08:53 · 19 h before start
odds 1.68Won
Leagues Cup · Leagues Cup: Final Stage·
CF America
2:2
Monterrey
penalties
Both teams to score: yes@1.68
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.68 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 26 Aug, 00:01 · 28 min before start
odds 2.30Won
Leagues Cup · Leagues Cup: Final Stage·
Monterrey
2:1
Chicago Fire
Monterrey or draw✓
Leagues Cup · Leagues Cup: Final Stage·
Monterrey
2:1
Chicago Fire
Both teams to score: yes@2.30✓
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.30 u
Parlay · 3posted 22 Aug, 23:02 · 27 min before start
Lost
MLS·
FC Cincinnati
1:1
Seattle Sounders FC
FC Cincinnati to win✕
MLS·
Inter Miami CF
1:2
Toronto FC
Inter Miami CF or draw✕
MLS·
Inter Miami CF
1:2
Toronto FC
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 13 Aug, 21:56 · 3 h before start
odds 3.40Won
Leagues Cup·
CF America
1:1
Austin FC
penalties
Draw@3.40
Open on Xexpected 28% from odds+2.40 u
Singleposted 12 Aug, 22:48 · 1 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
Leagues Cup·
Monterrey
2:1
Nashville SC
Monterrey to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line+0.90 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Aug, 22:46 · 43 min before start
Won
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
2:3
Leon
Leon or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
2:3
Leon
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Aug, 22:46 · 1 h before start
odds 1.87Won
Leagues Cup·
Monterrey
2:1
Nashville SC
Monterrey or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Monterrey
2:1
Nashville SC
Over 1.5@1.87✓
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.87 u
Parlay · 2posted 12 Aug, 22:46 · 3 h before start
Won
Leagues Cup·
Toluca
3:1
FC Dallas
Over 2.5✓
Leagues Cup·
Seattle Sounders FC
1:2
CD Guadalajara
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 8 Aug, 21:41 · 2 h before start
Won
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
1:2
Monterrey
Monterrey or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
1:2
Monterrey
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 8 Aug, 21:41 · 3 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Leagues Cup·
CD Guadalajara
0:1
FC Dallas
CD Guadalajara to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 7 Aug, 22:29 · 1 h before start
odds 1.91Won
Leagues Cup·
Columbus Crew
2:1
Pachuca
Both teams to score: yes✓
Leagues Cup·
Columbus Crew
2:1
Pachuca
Over 2.5@1.91✓
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.91 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 7 Aug, 22:29 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95Lost
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
2:0
Pumas
FC Cincinnati or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
2:0
Pumas
Over 2.5@1.95✕
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 7posted 7 Aug, 22:29 · 1 h before start
Lost
Leagues Cup·
Charlotte
2:0
Atlas
Charlotte or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Charlotte
2:0
Atlas
Over 1.5✓
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
2:0
Pumas
FC Cincinnati or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
2:0
Pumas
Over 1.5✓
Leagues Cup·
Tigres
0:0
Minnesota United
penalties
Tigres or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Tigres
0:0
Minnesota United
penalties
Over 1.5✕
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
1:2
Monterrey
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 24% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 6 Aug, 23:03 · 57 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
Leagues Cup·
Cruz Azul
1:0
Philadelphia Union
Both teams to score: yes✕
Leagues Cup·
Cruz Azul
1:0
Philadelphia Union
Over 2.5@1.87✕
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 6 Aug, 23:03 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
Leagues Cup·
Chicago Fire
2:0
Necaxa
Both teams to score: yes✕
Leagues Cup·
Chicago Fire
2:0
Necaxa
Over 2.5@1.80✕
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 6 Aug, 23:03 · 1 h before start
Won
Leagues Cup·
CF America
3:1
San Diego
CF America to win✓
Leagues Cup·
Chicago Fire
2:0
Necaxa
Chicago Fire or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Chicago Fire
2:0
Necaxa
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Parlay · 6posted 4 Aug, 22:21 · 1 h before start
Won
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
3:1
Pachuca
FC Cincinnati or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
FC Cincinnati
3:1
Pachuca
Over 1.5✓
Leagues Cup·
Columbus Crew
3:1
Atlas
Columbus Crew or draw✓
Leagues Cup·
Columbus Crew
3:1
Atlas
Over 1.5✓
Leagues Cup·
Inter Miami CF
4:2
Atletico de San Luis
Inter Miami CF to win✓
Leagues Cup·
Toluca
3:0
Seattle Sounders FC
Toluca or draw✓
Open on Xexpected 25% by model