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Duffy

@james_rossiter414 followersfirst pick 19 Augusually posts 2 h before start

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Tipster index62.8#36 on the leaderboarddown 19 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
57.1%
expected 46.2%
Edge
+11.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 44.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
43
24-18-1
ROI
−8.3%
on 13 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.09 u
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W8, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

024618 Aug1 Sept14 Sept28 Sept11 Oct

By sport

Football14-12 · 26 graded
+4.3
54%
Tennis10-6-1 · 17 graded
+21.8
63%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays13-18 · 31 graded
+4.4
42%
Totals6-0-1 · 7 graded
+26.1
100%
Match result2-0 · 2 graded
+33.6
100%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+30.8
100%
Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded
+39.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite10-0-1 · 11 graded
+28.2
100%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+42.9
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +29.6 pp
    11-1-1 · 92%
  • September 2026
    +13.1 pp
    9-9 · 50%
    ROI +9.9%
  • October 2026
    −10.8 pp
    4-8 · 33%

By league

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Picks

Parlay · 3posted 11 Oct, 07:31 · 3 h before start
odds 2.23Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:1
Quentin Halys
Over 18.5 games✓
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
2:1
Frances Tiafoe
Over 19.5 games✓
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Qinwen Zheng
2:0
Mirra Andreeva
Over 18.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds+1.23 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 16:14 · 2 h before start
Won
Eerste Divisie·
Almere City FC
3:0
FC Eindhoven
Over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 87% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 16:14 · 2 h before start
Won
Eerste Divisie·
Heracles
3:0
RKC Waalwijk
Heracles to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Parlay · 3posted 9 Oct, 14:39 · 2 h before start
odds 2.49Lost
Bundesliga·
Borussia Dortmund
2:2
Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund to win✕
Eredivisie·
PSV Eindhoven
2:0
SC Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven to win✓
Süper Lig·
Galatasaray
3:1
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray to win✓
Open on Xexpected 35% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 9 Oct, 09:44 · 25 min before start
odds 2.21Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Novak Djokovic
0:2
Hubert Hurkacz
Over 20.5 games✕
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Bublik
2:0
Tomas Machac
Over 19.5 games✓
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Elise Mertens
2:0
Iga Swiatek
Over 17.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 6 Oct, 18:08 · 37 min before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
Croatia
1:2
Spain
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League C: Group 4·
Estonia
0:0
Iceland
Over 1.5✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
England
3:0
Czechia
Over 2.5✓
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Parlay · 3posted 5 Oct, 11:02 · 22 min before start
odds 2.19Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Novak Djokovic
live
Daniil Medvedev
Over 19.5 games◷
ATP Challenger · Braga, Portugal·
Thiago Monteiro
1:2
Elmer Moller
Over 18.5 games✓
ATP Challenger · Braga, Portugal·
Duje Ajdukovic
2:0
Filip Jianu
Over 18.5 games✕
Open on Xexpected 39% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 4 Oct, 15:52 · 3 h before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Portugal
2:1
Norway
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Greece
0:0
Germany
Over 1.5✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Netherlands
2:1
Serbia
Netherlands to win✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Wales
0:1
Denmark
Over 1.5✕
Open on Xexpected 34% by model
Parlay · 4posted 3 Oct, 11:16 · 28 min before start
Lost
ATP 500 · China Open·
Francisco Cerundolo
2:0
Jakub Mensik
Over 19.5 games✕
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Juan Martin
2:0
Matthew Donald
Over 18.5 games✕
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Marie Bouzkova
2:0
Kimberly Birrell
Over 17.5 games✓
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Sonay Kartal
2:0
Xinyu Wang
Over 17.5 games✕
Open on Xexpected 32% by model
Parlay · 4posted 2 Oct, 18:26 · 19 min before start
Won
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 4·
Poland
6:0
Romania
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 4·
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1:1
Sweden
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Belgium
3:0
Turkiye
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
France
1:1
Italy
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Parlay · 4posted 1 Oct, 14:25 · 4 h before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Greece
2:2
Netherlands
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Denmark
2:4
Portugal
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Germany
2:0
Serbia
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Wales
2:1
Norway
Norway to win✕
Open on Xexpected 20% by model
Parlay · 4posted 1 Oct, 11:49 · 7 h before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Greece
2:2
Netherlands
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Denmark
2:4
Portugal
Over 1.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Wales
2:1
Norway
Norway to win✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Germany
2:0
Serbia
Germany to win✓
Open on Xexpected 33% by model
Parlay · 3posted 30 Sept, 09:54 · 3 h before start
Lost
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Zsombor Piros
0:2
Enrico Dalla Valle
Over 18.5 games✕
ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·
Clement Tabur
2:0
Thomas Faurel
Over 18.5 games✕
ATP Challenger · Mouilleron-Le-Captif, France·
Lucas Poullain
2:1
Remy Bertola
Over 18.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 38% by model
Parlay · 3posted 28 Sept, 17:05 · 2 h before start
odds 3.72Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Belgium
0:1
France
Both teams to score: yes✕
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 4·
Sweden
3:1
Poland
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 1·
Turkiye
1:4
Italy
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 23% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 28 Sept, 13:21 · 19 min before start
Lost
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Buvaysar Gadamauri
1:2
Enrico Dalla Valle
Over 17.5 games✓
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Mika Petkovic
0:2
Vitaliy Sachko
Over 17.5 games✕
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Zsombor Piros
2:0
Benjamin Hassan
Zsombor Piros to win✓
ATP Challenger · Bari, Italy·
Lorenzo Angelini
2:1
Garrett Johns
Over 17.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Parlay · 3posted 27 Sept, 10:07 · 3 h before start
odds 2.01Won
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Learner Tien
Over 18.5 games✓
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Carlos Alcaraz
void
Alex de Minaur
Over 15.5 games∅
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Rafael Jodar
void
Taylor Fritz
Over 18.5 games∅
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds+0.63 u
Parlay · 4posted 26 Sept, 12:20 · 2 h before start
odds 2.28Won
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 3·
England
2:3
Spain
Over 1.5✓
League 2·
Cheltenham Town
2:1
Chesterfield
Over 0.5✓
UEFA Nations League · League C: Group 4·
Iceland
1:1
Estonia
Over 1.5✓
League 1·
Wycombe Wanderers
2:2
Reading
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds+1.28 u
Parlay · 4posted 26 Sept, 09:49 · 3 h before start
Won
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Flavio Cobolli
1:2
Learner Tien
Over 18.5 games✓
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Alexander Zverev
1:2
Alex de Minaur
Over 17.5 games✓
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Carlos Alcaraz
2:1
Taylor Fritz
Carlos Alcaraz to win✓
ATP team tournaments · Laver Cup·
Carlos Alcaraz
2:1
Taylor Fritz
Over 15.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 34% by model
Parlay · 4posted 24 Sept, 14:04 · 5 h before start
Lost
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Portugal
1:0
Wales
Over 1.5✕
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 4·
Norway
3:2
Denmark
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League A: Group 2·
Netherlands
1:1
Germany
Both teams to score: yes✓
UEFA Nations League · League B: Group 3·
Austria
3:1
Israel
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 28% by model
Parlay · 6posted 19 Sept, 10:03 · 1 h before start
Lost
Primeira Liga·
Sporting CP
2:2
Arouca
Over 1.5✓
LaLiga·
Sevilla
1:3
Barcelona
Over 1.5✓
Serie A·
Udinese
0:1
Cagliari
Over 0.5✓
Premier League·
Brighton
3:0
Arsenal
Arsenal to win✕
Eredivisie·
Ajax
2:2
Excelsior
Over 1.5✓
Championship·
Millwall
2:2
West Ham United
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 29% by model
Parlay · 5posted 19 Sept, 09:09 · 2 h before start
Won
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jurij Rodionov
2:0
Zizou Bergs
Over 18.5 games✓
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Daniel Altmaier
0:2
Dino Prizmic
Over 18.5 games✓
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Jiri Lehecka
2:0
Learner Tien
Over 19.5 games✓
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Matej Dodig
Alexander Zverev to win✓
Davis Cup · Davis Cup Qualifiers·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Matej Dodig
Under 23.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 17% by model
Parlay · 4posted 17 Sept, 09:58 · 11 min before start
odds 2.28Lost
ATP Challenger · Biella, Italy·
Francesco Forti
0:2
Mika Brunold
Over 17.5 games✕
ATP Challenger · Biella, Italy·
Alex Barrena
2:0
Samuele Pieri
Over 17.5 games✕
WTA · Sao Paulo Open·
Elina Avanesyan
0:2
Alina Charaeva
Over 17.5 games✕
WTA 500 · Guadalajara Open Akron·
Magdalena Frech
0:2
Iva Jovic
Over 16.5 games✕
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 4posted 16 Sept, 12:41 · 6 h before start
odds 6.79Lost
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
Everton
1:0
Wolves
Both teams to score: yes✕
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
Coventry City
1:3
Aston Villa
Both teams to score: yes✓
Europa League · League Stage·
AC Milan
0:2
Benfica
Both teams to score: yes✕
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
Manchester United
2:3
Brighton
Both teams to score: yes✓
Open on Xexpected 12% from odds−1.00 u
Parlay · 3posted 9 Sept, 12:00 · 4 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Qinwen Zheng
1:2
Elena Rybakina
Over 18.5 games✓
US Open · Women's Singles·
Mirra Andreeva
1:2
Coco Gauff
Over 17.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Karen Khachanov
void
Alexander Blockx
Over 32.5 games∅
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Parlay · 2posted 8 Sept, 11:23 · 4 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Aryna Sabalenka
2:1
Linda Noskova
Over 16.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Frances Tiafoe
3:2
Alex Michelsen
Over 33.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Parlay · 3posted 7 Sept, 11:16 · 4 h before start
Lost
Saudi Professional League·
Al Khaleej
0:0
Al Riyadh
Over 1.5✕
Saudi Professional League·
Al Hilal
0:2
NEOM SC
Over 1.5✓
Serie A·
Udinese
1:2
Lazio
Over 0.5✓
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Parlay · 3posted 6 Sept, 10:15 · 3 h before start
Won
LaLiga·
Valencia
0:5
Barcelona
Barcelona to win✓
Premier League·
Everton
2:2
Manchester United
Over 1.5✓
Premier League·
Arsenal
2:1
Chelsea
Over 1.5✓
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Parlay · 4posted 6 Sept, 09:13 · 8 h before start
Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Marta Kostyuk
1:2
Linda Noskova
Over 18.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Tommy Paul
0:3
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz to win✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alex Michelsen
3:0
Tomas Etcheverry
Over 30.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Daniil Medvedev
0:3
Frances Tiafoe
Over 31.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 19% by model
Parlay · 4posted 5 Sept, 10:08 · 5 h before start
odds 3.78Won
US Open · Women's Singles·
Anastasia Potapova
2:0
Amanda Anisimova
Over 15.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Taylor Fritz
2:3
Francisco Cerundolo
Over 28.5 games✓
US Open · Men's Singles·
Alexander Blockx
3:1
Flavio Cobolli
Over 32.5 games✓
US Open · Women's Singles·
Mirra Andreeva
2:0
Nikola Bartunkova
Over 14.5 games✓
Open on Xexpected 22% from odds+2.78 u
Parlay · 2posted 2 Sept, 17:07 · 2 h before start
odds 2.17Lost
Premiership·
Falkirk
1:2
Rangers
Rangers to win✓
League 1·
Luton Town
2:0
Stockport County
Both teams to score: yes✕
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u