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ALPHABERRY

@alphaberrybet8 followersfirst pick 5 Augusually posts 9 h before start

Building 🏦 Bankrolls Dedicated my life in mastering sports betting

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Tipster index43.1#374 on the leaderboarddown 17 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Tommy Paul
-:-
Valentin Vacherot
Tommy Paul to win@1.66
Hit rate
53.6%
expected 60.7%
Edge
−7.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 38.5%, the edge is within noise
Graded
28
15-13 · 1 pending
ROI
−31.7%
on 20 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.67 u
Average odds
1.65
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W8, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-204 Aug21 Aug7 Sept25 Sept12 Oct

By sport

Baseball5-10 · 15 graded
−25.3
33%
Tennis5-2 · 7 graded
+12.8
71%
Hockey2-1 · 3 graded
−1.0
67%
NFL & NCAAF3-0 · 3 graded
+30.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result11-10 · 21 graded
−6.9
52%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
−17.0
50%
Totals2-1 · 3 graded
+4.4
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-6 · 17 graded
−1.2
65%
Even4-7 · 11 graded
−16.3
36%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.504-1 · 5 graded
+8.7%
80%
1.50…1.895-7 · 12 graded
−31.4%
42%
1.90…2.290-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −27.1 pp
    5-11 · 31%
    ROI −51.3%
  • October 2026
    +19.5 pp
    10-2 · 83%
    ROI +4.8%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 4 h before start
odds 1.30Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Pablo Carreno Busta
1:2
Felix Auger Aliassime
Felix Auger Aliassime to win@1.30
Open on Xexpected 73% from odds+0.30 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 7 h before start
odds 1.58Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Stefanos Tsitsipas
2:1
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz to win@1.58
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 12 h before start
odds 1.66Pending
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Tommy Paul
-:-
Valentin Vacherot
Tommy Paul to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 3 h before start
odds 1.55Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Anhelina Kalinina
0:2
Sonay Kartal
Sonay Kartal to win@1.55
Open on Xexpected 62% from odds+0.55 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 5 h before start
odds 1.33Void
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Janice Tjen
void
Oleksandra Oliynykova
Janice Tjen to win@1.33
Open on Xexpected 71% from odds
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Mananchaya Sawangkaew
0:2
Magdalena Frech
Magdalena Frech to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 4 h before start
Won
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Learner Tien
0:2
Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud to win
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 6 h before start
Won
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Jasmine Paolini
2:0
Sara Bejlek
Jasmine Paolini to win
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 23:52 · 5 h before start
Void
WTA 1000 · Wuhan Open·
Clara Tauson
void
Marie Bouzkova
Clara Tauson to win
Open on Xexpected 36% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 21:08 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:30
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens +10.5
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:05 · 20 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Arizona Cardinals
21:45
Detroit Lions
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:05 · 20 min before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks +4.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:42 · 1 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:5
Seattle Kraken
Washington Capitals to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:42 · 2 h before start
odds 1.34DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
6:2
Vancouver Canucks
New York Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line+0.34 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 19:42 · 3 h before start
odds 1.43DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
1:4
Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 67% from the closing line+0.43 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Athletics
4:12
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.54 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
4:1
Houston Astros
Houston Astros to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 13 h before start
odds 1.36DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Los Angeles Dodgers
5:4
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.36 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
New York Yankees
4:1
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners +1.5
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 9 h before start
odds 2.31DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
6:4
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 43% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 9 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Miami Marlins
2:0
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates to win
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 9 h before start
odds 1.59DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Washington Nationals
6:8
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.59 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
odds 2.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:3
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Atlanta Braves
4:0
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
Won
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
2:5
Baltimore Orioles
Under 9.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago White Sox
4:5
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago White Sox to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 10 h before start
Lost
MLB·
St. Louis Cardinals
2:0
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
3:2
Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Arizona Diamondbacks
2:3
Colorado Rockies
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Aug, 13:24 · 12 h before start
odds 1.79DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
San Diego Padres
11:2
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u