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Ryan M

@VegasMinion4.7K followersfirst pick 16 Octusually posts 11 h before start

@ActionNetworkHQ @ProvidenceCol JOIN MY DISCORD- https://t.co/vF3otu9Hgu 👈 Writer. College Hoops Junkie. Friars. DFS Golf Enthusiast. Tennis Lover #LGM

NFL & NCAAFBasketballBaseball
Tipster index53.8needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
55.6%
expected 47.3%
Edge
+8.3 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
5-4
ROI
+4.1%
on 7 picks with odds · max drawdown −3.47 u
Average odds
2.55
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.516 Oct18 Oct20 Oct22 Oct24 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-1 · 5 graded
+28.8
80%
Basketball0-3 · 3 graded
−35.4
0%
Baseball1-0 · 1 graded
+36.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-3 · 6 graded
+5.6
50%
Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+13.7
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-0 · 2 graded
+30.4
100%
Even2-2 · 4 graded
−0.7
50%
Underdog1-2 · 3 graded
+5.5
33%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
1.50…1.891-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +8.3 pp
    5-4 · 56%
    ROI +4.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 21:24 · 3 h before start
odds 1.53DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.53 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:17 · 9 h before start
odds 2.18Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
107:103
New York Knicks
New York Knicks to win@2.18
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:17 · 12 h before start
odds 4.20Lost
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Clippers to win@4.20
Open on Xexpected 23% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:19 · 3 days before start
odds 1.26DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona Wildcats
39:3
Iowa State Cyclones
Arizona Wildcats to win
Open on Xexpected 76% from the closing line+0.26 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:19 · 3 days before start
odds 4.50Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kansas Jayhawks
25:24
Baylor Bears
Kansas Jayhawks to win@4.50
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds+3.50 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 13:25 · 11 h before start
odds 2.40Lost
NBA · Regular season·
New Orleans Pelicans
120:123
Indiana Pacers
New Orleans Pelicans to win@2.40
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 13:53 · 10 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
UCLA Bruins
17:7
Wisconsin Badgers
UCLA Bruins −2.5
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 12:33 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Miami Hurricanes
43:35
Florida State Seminoles
Miami Hurricanes −20.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 13:27 · 11 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Purdue Boilermakers
26:38
Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model