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rooty

@V7musyo1.4K followersfirst pick 20 Septusually posts 3 h before start

Love prediction markets | Research trader | Writing about markets Collabs / Ads - TG: vmusyo Ambassador @bagel_win

BasketballNFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index41.8needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
37.5%
expected 57.0%
Edge
โˆ’19.5 pp
over expectation
Graded
8
3-5
ROI
โˆ’51.4%
on 8 picks with odds ยท max drawdown โˆ’4.80 u
Average odds
1.93
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 ยท best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-1020 Sept28 Sept6 Oct14 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Basketball1-3 ยท 4 graded
โˆ’22.9
25%
NFL & NCAAF2-2 ยท 4 graded
โˆ’16.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result3-5 ยท 8 graded
โˆ’19.5
38%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-2 ยท 5 graded
โˆ’8.8
60%
Even0-1 ยท 1 graded
โˆ’53.3
0%
Underdog0-2 ยท 2 graded
โˆ’29.4
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-0 ยท 3 graded
-
100%
1.50โ€ฆ1.890-3 ยท 3 graded
-
0%
2.30โ€ฆ3.490-1 ยท 1 graded
-
0%
3.50+0-1 ยท 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +28.8 pp
    2-0 ยท 100%
  • October 2026
    โˆ’35.7 pp
    1-5 ยท 17%
    ROI โˆ’80.0%

By league

  • NFL2-250%โˆ’16.1
  • NBA1-325%โˆ’22.9

Similar tipsters

Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 22:16 ยท 3 h before start
odds 3.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA ยท Regular seasonยท
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets to win
Open on Xexpected 26% from the closing lineโˆ’1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 00:31 ยท 1 h before start
odds 2.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA ยท Regular seasonยท
LA Lakers
127:105
Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors to win
Open on Xexpected 33% from the closing lineโˆ’1.00 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 14:23 ยท 5 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NBA ยท Regular seasonยท
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing lineโˆ’1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:43 ยท 6 h before start
odds 1.20DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA ยท Pre-seasonยท
Detroit Pistons
129:125
Toronto Raptors
Detroit Pistons to win
Open on Xexpected 80% from the closing line+0.20 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 19:15 ยท 5 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL ยท Regular Seasonยท
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing lineโˆ’1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 17:32 ยท 3 h before start
odds 1.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL ยท Regular Seasonยท
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing lineโˆ’1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Sept, 21:27 ยท 3 h before start
odds 1.32DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL ยท Regular Seasonยท
Los Angeles Rams
28:6
New York Giants
Los Angeles Rams to win
Open on Xexpected 73% from the closing line+0.32 u
Singleposted 20 Sept, 22:46 ยท 2 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL ยท Regular Seasonยท
Kansas City Chiefs
33:30
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line+0.37 u