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GW

@TheReal_gwarner1.6K followersfirst pick 6 Septusually posts 4 h before start

Sportsbetting Consultant | 2023: +79.38 units | Betting with an investment lens | Exclusive content https://t.co/vrhZKYHaGs | @thePitchBetting pod

NFL & NCAAFFootballHockeyBaseball
CompareRSS
Tipster index53.2#310 on the leaderboardup 121 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
46.7%
expected 41.8%
Edge
+4.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 27.7%, the edge is within noise
Graded
15
7-8
ROI
-
on 1 picks with odds
Average odds
1.86
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W2, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.500.515 Sept20 Sept5 Oct21 Oct5 Nov

By sport

NFL & NCAAF4-6 · 10 graded
+2.4
40%
Football1-2 · 3 graded
−20.7
33%
Baseball1-0 · 1 graded
+58.8
100%
Hockey1-0 · 1 graded
+52.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Parlays1-6 · 7 graded
−17.2
14%
Totals6-1 · 7 graded
+34.9
86%
Handicap0-1 · 1 graded
−50.8
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even6-2 · 8 graded
+24.2
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +16.2 pp
    3-2 · 60%
  • October 2026
    −4.1 pp
    3-5 · 38%
  • November 2026
    +12.6 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 4 Nov, 23:04 · 4 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
2:1
Calgary Flames
Under 6
Open on Xexpected 47% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Nov, 20:35 · 5 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
17:34
Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks −3✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
17:34
Chicago Bears
Under 46✕
Open on Xexpected 27% by model
Singleposted 30 Oct, 21:19 · 5 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sacramento State Hornets
31:10
Kent State Golden Flashes
Under 46.5
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 23:48 · 31 min before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
20:3
Kansas City Chiefs
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 12:15 · 4 h before start
Lost
LaLiga·
Real Betis
2:5
Barcelona
Under 2.75
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 11 Oct, 18:28 · 2 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks −3✕
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
29:32
San Francisco 49ers
Under 46.5✕
Open on Xexpected 25% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 10 Oct, 17:33 · 2 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Oklahoma Sooners +8✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Under 41✕
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 11:45 · 26 h before start
Won
Botswana · Premier League·
Police XI
0:0
Extension Gunners
Under 2.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 9 Oct, 20:10 · 5 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes +3✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Washington Huskies
24:41
Iowa Hawkeyes
Under 41✕
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 2 Oct, 20:12 · 3 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh Panthers +2.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Tech Hokies
33:35
Pittsburgh Panthers
Under 54.5✕
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 19 Sept, 19:09 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
41:7
Colorado Buffaloes
Northwestern Wildcats −3.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
41:7
Colorado Buffaloes
Under 48↺
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 12 Sept, 19:43 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
16:13
Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa Hawkeyes −14✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
16:13
Iowa State Cyclones
Under 41.5✓
Open on Xexpected 26% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 18:48 · 12 min before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Sporting CP
3:1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray +1
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 23:26 · 3 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida State Seminoles
24:27
SMU Mustangs
Under 55
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 6 Sept, 17:16 · 3 h before start
Won
MLB·
Seattle Mariners
2:0
Athletics
Under 7.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model