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@TP_Pickss504 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 8 h before start

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Tipster index50.4#335 on the leaderboarddown 31 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 3

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Under 223.5
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
Under 6.5 +1
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win@1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
Hit rate
56.5%
expected 56.3%
Edge
+0.2 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 52.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
365
205-158-2 · 3 pending
ROI
−2.6%
on 315 picks with odds · max drawdown −17.34 u
Average odds
1.72
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W11, worst L7

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-50531 Jul21 Aug11 Sept2 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Baseball151-108-2 · 261 graded
+1.9
58%
NFL & NCAAF28-26 · 54 graded
−7.0
52%
Hockey20-21 · 41 graded
−3.8
49%
Basketball3-3 · 6 graded
−6.9
50%
Football3-0 · 3 graded
+52.0
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result168-122 · 290 graded
+0.5
58%
Totals20-13-2 · 35 graded
+8.0
61%
Handicap10-10 · 20 graded
−6.1
50%
Parlays5-10 · 15 graded
−6.1
33%
Team totals2-3 · 5 graded
−24.4
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite80-43 · 123 graded
−0.4
65%
Even117-104-2 · 223 graded
+0.3
53%
Underdog3-1 · 4 graded
+37.0
75%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.5035-13 · 48 graded
+1.9%
73%
1.50…1.89113-83-1 · 197 graded
−4.2%
58%
1.90…2.2928-33 · 61 graded
−6.9%
46%
2.30…3.494-3 · 7 graded
+40.0%
57%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +2.2 pp
    84-63-2 · 57%
    ROI +1.5%
  • September 2026
    +1.2 pp
    92-62 · 60%
    ROI −4.5%
  • October 2026
    −7.0 pp
    29-33 · 47%
    ROI −9.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:51 · 2 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Under 223.5
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 23 Oct, 15:30 · 9 h before start
Pending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
Under 6.5◷
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win◷
Open on Xexpected 31% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:30 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
-:-
Tampa Bay Lightning
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:21 · 2 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
East Carolina Pirates +10.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.86 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Anaheim Ducks
New Jersey Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line+0.45 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.89DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
4:0
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Boston Bruins
6:0
Nashville Predators
Boston Bruins to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Toronto Maple Leafs
5:4
New York Rangers
Toronto Maple Leafs to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 9 h before start
odds 2.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
2:6
San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks to win
Open on Xexpected 45% from the closing line+1.14 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 10 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Islanders
2:3
Los Angeles Kings
New York Islanders to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 10 h before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
St. Louis Blues
6:2
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 10 h before start
odds 1.50DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
3:2
Winnipeg Jets
Dallas Stars to win
Open on Xexpected 64% from the closing line+0.50 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 11 h before start
odds 1.74DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Edmonton Oilers
6:5
Carolina Hurricanes
penalties
Carolina Hurricanes to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 11 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:1
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 12 h before start
odds 1.58DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:5
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings to win
Open on Xexpected 61% from the closing line+0.58 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 13:39 · 12 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 21:54 · 2 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Toronto Raptors
135:92
Chicago Bulls
Toronto Raptors to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 17:32 · 6 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
106:131
Minnesota Timberwolves
Under 240.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Oct, 15:56 · 8 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Under 6↺
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers +1.5✕
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 21 Oct, 15:56 · 8 h before start
Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Over 5.5✕
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres to win✕
Open on Xexpected 46% by model
Singleposted 20 Oct, 22:59 · 1 min before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Montreal Canadiens
3:4
San Jose Sharks
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 16:50 · 7 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 14:14 · 9 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New York Rangers
5:2
Anaheim Ducks
New York Rangers to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 14:14 · 9 h before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Philadelphia Flyers
3:2
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 69% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 14:14 · 11 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Utah Mammoth
5:4
Pittsburgh Penguins
Utah Mammoth to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.54 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 18:47 · 2 h before start
odds 1.23DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
22:6
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Open on Xexpected 78% from the closing line+0.23 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:48 · 7 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Minnesota Wild
2:1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Minnesota Wild to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 17 Oct, 22:31 · 59 min before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Under 49.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 19:29 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itVoid
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:11 · 3 days before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model