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The Observer

@SportsAddictPod63 followersfirst pick 29 Septusually posts 6 h before start

Prediction Market Trader (“The Observer” on IG) Posting my actual picks before resolution 📊 Not financial advice Q4 Current Record: 164-18

HockeyNFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index58.0#117 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample
Hit rate
88.2%
expected 77.1%
Edge
+11.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 70.0%, the edge is within noise
Graded
17
15-2
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
1.58
singles with odds
Form
streak W6 · best W10, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511.528 Sept4 Oct10 Oct16 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Hockey8-0 · 8 graded
+10.2
100%
NFL & NCAAF4-2 · 6 graded
+0.6
67%
Baseball2-0 · 2 graded
+19.2
100%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+64.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap9-1 · 10 graded
+7.0
90%
Parlays3-0 · 3 graded
+38.5
100%
Team totals2-0 · 2 graded
+19.2
100%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
−17.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite11-2 · 13 graded
+1.4
85%
Even1-0 · 1 graded
+54.4
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.500-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.291-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +54.4 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +8.4 pp
    14-2 · 88%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 18:09 · 6 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears +21.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 16:03 · 7 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres +2.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:15 · 8 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Buffalo Sabres
1:3
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres +3.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:15 · 8 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Ottawa Senators
5:1
Florida Panthers
Ottawa Senators +3.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 20 Oct, 16:56 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics +19.5✓
NBA · Regular season·
Detroit Pistons
121:113
Boston Celtics
Under 248.5✓
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:25 · 4 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Tech Red Raiders
53:25
Arizona State Sun Devils
Texas Tech Red Raiders +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:25 · 4 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:23 · 36 min before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:27
Florida Gators
Texas Longhorns +14.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 15:23 · 4 h before start
odds 1.07DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Georgia Bulldogs
24:27
Auburn Tigers
Georgia Bulldogs to win
Open on Xexpected 89% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 16:49 · 8 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche +2.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Parlay · 3posted 16 Oct, 16:46 · 7 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tulane Green Wave
31:17
Memphis Tigers
Memphis Tigers +14.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
5:2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Colorado Avalanche +3.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Anaheim Ducks
2:4
Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins +3.5✓
Open on Xexpected 58% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Oct, 06:48 · 17 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals +3.5✓
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
5:4
Montreal Canadiens
Washington Capitals over 0.5✓
Open on Xexpected 92% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 06:48 · 18 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche +3.5
Open on Xexpected 97% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 23:43 · 46 min before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
San Diego Padres
Milwaukee Brewers over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 20:04 · 6 h before start
Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
San Jose Sharks
4:3
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers +2.5
Open on Xexpected 96% by model
Singleposted 1 Oct, 19:25 · 5 h before start
Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 81% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 14:58 · 6 h before start
odds 2.10DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
0:1
Florida Panthers
Florida Panthers to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line+1.10 u