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PICKS LAURENT

@PicksLaurent152 followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 1 h before start

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BaseballBasketballNFL & NCAAFHockeyTennisFootball
Tipster index51.3#193 on the leaderboardup 23 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
50.4%
expected 49.6%
Edge
+0.9 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 42.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
111
56-55
ROI
−0.9%
on 102 picks with odds · max drawdown −11.65 u
Average odds
1.94
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-20231 Jul18 Aug5 Sept23 Sept12 Oct

By sport

Baseball49-41 · 90 graded
+4.8
54%
Basketball2-8 · 10 graded
−26.1
20%
NFL & NCAAF2-5 · 7 graded
−23.6
29%
Hockey2-0 · 2 graded
+46.9
100%
Football0-1 · 1 graded
−66.5
0%
Tennis1-0 · 1 graded
+57.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Totals23-21 · 44 graded
+2.0
52%
Handicap20-20 · 40 graded
−1.8
50%
Match result12-10 · 22 graded
+9.9
55%
Parlays1-3 · 4 graded
−18.2
25%
Double chance0-1 · 1 graded
−66.5
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-3 · 7 graded
−5.9
57%
Even47-44 · 91 graded
+1.3
52%
Underdog4-5 · 9 graded
+10.1
44%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.8925-25 · 50 graded
−11.3%
50%
1.90…2.2922-19 · 41 graded
+7.6%
54%
2.30…3.495-4 · 9 graded
+40.3%
56%

Singles with the odds stated in the post. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −0.4 pp
    22-24 · 48%
    ROI −1.4%
  • September 2026
    −1.5 pp
    29-30 · 49%
    ROI −7.7%
  • October 2026
    +33.6 pp
    5-1 · 83%
    ROI +65.3%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:45 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:45 · 3 h before start
odds 1.78Won
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
2:1
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 6.5@1.78
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.78 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 20:45 · 15 min before start
odds 1.74Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:5
Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken +1.5@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:03 · 56 min before start
odds 1.75Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
2:0
Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.75
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.75 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 23:03 · 3 h before start
odds 1.85Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
2:4
Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks to win@1.85
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds+0.85 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 01:17 · 12 min before start
odds 2.80Won
WNBA · WNBA: Play-off·
Las Vegas Aces
77:87
Golden State Valkyries
Golden State Valkyries to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds+1.80 u
Parlay · 5posted 17 Sept, 16:34 · 1 min before start
odds 2.01Lost
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
7:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win✕
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
7:4
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 8.5✕
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
2:8
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 10↺
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
2:8
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win✓
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
2:9
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres to win✓
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 23:18 · 51 min before start
odds 2.41Won
MLB·
Houston Astros
2:5
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals to win@2.41
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.41 u
Singleposted 16 Sept, 23:18 · 2 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Los Angeles Angels
2:7
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels +1.5
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 17:34 · 6 min before start
Won
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
5:4
New York Yankees
Over 7.5
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 22:29 · 10 min before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB·
Pittsburgh Pirates
1:5
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 22:29 · 10 min before start
odds 1.97Lost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
0:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 8.5@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Sept, 22:29 · 10 min before start
odds 1.94Won
MLB·
Tampa Bay Rays
2:1
Athletics
Athletics +1.5@1.94
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.94 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 22:27 · 12 min before start
odds 1.85Lost
MLB·
Cincinnati Reds
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Cincinnati Reds +2@1.85
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 22:27 · 39 min before start
odds 1.95Lost
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:6
Detroit Tigers
Under 7.5@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 22:27 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
3:8
New York Yankees
Under 8.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 22:27 · 2 h before start
odds 1.77Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs to win@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.77 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 40 min before start
odds 1.91Won
MLB·
New York Yankees
2:0
New York Mets
Under 8@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 1 h before start
odds 1.80Won
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:4
Cincinnati Reds
Under 8.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds+0.80 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 5 min before start
odds 1.93Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
33:27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
27:13
Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins +3.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 5 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Indianapolis Colts
23:41
Baltimore Ravens
Indianapolis Colts +3@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 16:54 · 5 min before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
31:30
New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions −7@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:55 · 15 min before start
odds 1.67Lost
MLB·
Detroit Tigers
11:7
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies +1.5@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:55 · 40 min before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB·
New York Yankees
2:12
New York Mets
Under 8.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:55 · 1 h before start
odds 2.60Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
4:3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs −1.5@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 16:55 · 3 h before start
odds 1.97Won
MLB·
Boston Red Sox
5:1
Kansas City Royals
Under 8.5@1.97
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+0.97 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 17:58 · 21 min before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
12:2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 11 Sept, 17:58 · 21 min before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
12:2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 8.5@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 19:57 · 3 h before start
odds 2.00Won
MLB·
New York Yankees
10:3
Colorado Rockies
Over 8.5@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u