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ChaseNutz

@NutzChase36 followersfirst pick 1 Octusually posts 2 h before start

🏈 Steelers | 🐯 Mizzou | ⚾ Royals ⛳ Handicap: emotionally unstable 🇺🇸 Missouri made Sports, bad decisions & unsolicited opinions

BaseballNFL & NCAAF
CompareRSS
Tipster index51.8needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
55.6%
expected 51.5%
Edge
+4.0 pp
over expectation
Graded
9
5-4
ROI
+11.3%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak L2 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.511 Oct4 Oct8 Oct11 Oct15 Oct

By sport

Baseball3-3 · 6 graded
−0.7
50%
NFL & NCAAF2-1 · 3 graded
+13.5
67%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result2-2 · 4 graded
−2.2
50%
Handicap3-0 · 3 graded
+46.2
100%
Totals0-2 · 2 graded
−46.7
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Even5-4 · 9 graded
+4.0
56%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.894-1 · 5 graded
+40.0%
80%
1.90…2.291-2 · 3 graded
-
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +4.0 pp
    5-4 · 56%
    ROI +11.3%

By league

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Same main sport, closest index

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Picks

Singleposted 14 Oct, 23:45 · 14 min before start
Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Under 7.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 13 Oct, 22:26 · 2 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
3:1
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 20:40 · 20 min before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
7:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Milwaukee Brewers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 01:16 · 14 min before start
odds 1.69DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
4:3
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres to win
Open on Xexpected 56% from the closing line+0.69 u
Singleposted 6 Oct, 16:11 · 6 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:3
Los Angeles Dodgers
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 5 Oct, 22:58 · 1 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
New Orleans Saints
24:45
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons +1.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.83 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 14:43 · 5 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Missouri Tigers +5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 20:01 · 4 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Northwestern Wildcats
34:13
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 17:34 · 6 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
6:2
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line+0.87 u