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Nick Dowling

@NickDowling321 followersfirst pick 22 Augusually posts 2 days before start

I talk sports and occasionally other things

NFL & NCAAFBaseballFootball
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Tipster index35.7#600 on the leaderboarddown 68 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
-:-
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers to win@1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-:-
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes to win@1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
-:-
Virginia Tech Hokies
Clemson Tigers to win
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels to win
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers to win
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
-:-
Houston Cougars
Utah Utes to win
Hit rate
53.8%
expected 66.5%
Edge
−12.6 pp
hit rate at most 66.3% with 95% confidence: below expectation beyond noise
Graded
40
21-18-1 · 6 pending
ROI
−24.5%
on 30 picks with odds · max drawdown −7.84 u
Average odds
1.54
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W6, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-6-4-2021 Aug5 Sept19 Sept3 Oct17 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF19-17 · 36 graded
−14.7
53%
Baseball2-1 · 3 graded
+12.3
67%
Football0-0-1 · 1 graded
0.0
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result21-18 · 39 graded
−12.6
54%
Totals0-0-1 · 1 graded
0.0
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite17-13-1 · 31 graded
−14.8
57%
Even3-4 · 7 graded
−10.6
43%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.8
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.507-9 · 16 graded
−45.2%
44%
1.50…1.897-3 · 10 graded
+11.8%
70%
1.90…2.290-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.491-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    −67.7 pp
    0-2-1 · 0%
  • September 2026
    +6.7 pp
    15-6 · 71%
    ROI +10.6%
  • October 2026
    −31.0 pp
    6-10 · 38%
    ROI −48.9%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Auburn Tigers
-:-
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
odds 1.35DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-:-
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes to win
Open on Xexpected 71% from the closing line
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
-:-
Virginia Tech Hokies
Clemson Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wisconsin Badgers
-:-
USC Trojans
Wisconsin Badgers to win
Open on Xexpected 67% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 23:07 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Utah Utes
-:-
Houston Cougars
Utah Utes to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:57 · 30 h before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:57 · 22 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Indiana Hoosiers
15:19
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:57 · 26 h before start
odds 1.30DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Open on Xexpected 74% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:57 · 26 h before start
odds 1.55DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
31:3
Missouri Tigers
Ole Miss Rebels to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.55 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 17:57 · 30 h before start
odds 1.37DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
13:21
Kentucky Wildcats
Oklahoma Sooners to win
Open on Xexpected 70% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:14 · 2 days before start
odds 1.80DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:14 · 2 days before start
odds 1.28DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:14 · 2 days before start
odds 1.24DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oregon Ducks
15:17
UCLA Bruins
Oregon Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 77% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:14 · 2 days before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kentucky Wildcats
35:34
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 8 Oct, 13:14 · 2 days before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 3 h before start
odds 1.48DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
23:56
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide to win
Open on Xexpected 65% from the closing line+0.48 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 7 h before start
odds 1.14DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Iowa Hawkeyes
14:31
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes to win
Open on Xexpected 84% from the closing line+0.14 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 7 h before start
odds 1.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
45:17
Florida Gators
Florida Gators to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 11 h before start
odds 1.32DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
25:21
Washington Huskies
USC Trojans to win
Open on Xexpected 72% from the closing line+0.32 u
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 14 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona State Sun Devils
19:55
Baylor Bears
Arizona State Sun Devils to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 3 Oct, 12:35 · 14 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Arizona Wildcats
34:7
Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona Wildcats to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:00 · 9 h before start
odds 1.76DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
9:0
Boston Red Sox
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 54% from the closing line+0.76 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:00 · 11 h before start
odds 2.08DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB · post-season·
San Diego Padres
8:0
Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 46% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 15:00 · 3 h before start
odds 1.52DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
5:3
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.52 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
odds 2.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Florida Gators
52:28
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels to win
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
odds 2.70DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
19:20
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa Hawkeyes to win
Open on Xexpected 35% from the closing line+1.70 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Western Michigan Broncos
7:32
Boise State Broncos
Western Michigan Broncos to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
24:41
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Cowboys to win
Open on Xexpected 71% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 18:57 · 2 days before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
USC Trojans
27:41
Oregon Ducks
Oregon Ducks to win
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.54 u