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Money Model

@MONEY_MODEL18 followersfirst pick 7 Septusually posts 3 h before start

MONEY MODEL☘️ Nuestro objetivo es seguir sumando 🍀

TennisFootballNFL & NCAAFBaseball
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Tipster index43.1#612 on the leaderboarddown 4 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
53.8%
expected 61.3%
Edge
−7.4 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 38.2%, the edge is within noise
Graded
27
14-12-1
ROI
−27.9%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.41 u
Average odds
1.71
singles with odds
Form
streak W2 · best W4, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-3-2-106 Sept19 Sept2 Oct15 Oct28 Oct

By sport

Tennis9-6 · 15 graded
0.0
60%
Football3-2 · 5 graded
−6.9
60%
NFL & NCAAF1-3 · 4 graded
−33.0
25%
Baseball1-1-1 · 3 graded
−13.1
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result10-5 · 15 graded
+5.8
67%
Totals1-6 · 7 graded
−46.6
14%
Handicap2-1-1 · 4 graded
+1.0
67%
Both teams to score1-0 · 1 graded
+42.6
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite9-7 · 16 graded
−11.7
56%
Even4-4-1 · 9 graded
−4.0
50%
Underdog1-1 · 2 graded
+12.9
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.502-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.50…1.892-1 · 3 graded
-
67%
1.90…2.290-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 0 of 2 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    −3.8 pp
    12-9 · 57%
    ROI −17.6%
  • October 2026
    −22.6 pp
    2-3-1 · 40%

By league

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Money Model (@MONEY_MODEL1) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 27 Oct, 23:08 · 6 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo)·
Cristina Bucsa
1:2
Maya Joint
Over 21 games
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 27 Oct, 23:05 · 6 h before start
Won
WTA 250 · Guangzhou Open·
Katerina Siniakova
2:1
Lanlana Tararudee
Katerina Siniakova −2.5
Open on Xexpected 69% by model
Singleposted 25 Oct, 17:30 · 3 h before start
odds 2.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
20:17
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 37% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 23:07 · 52 min before start
Push
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers −1
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 21 Oct, 18:45 · 14 min before start
Lost
Champions League · League Stage·
Real Betis
1:0
Feyenoord
Over 1.5
Open on Xexpected 85% by model
Singleposted 6 Oct, 02:29 · 2 h before start
Lost
WTA 1000 · China Open·
Linda Noskova
0:2
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Linda Noskova −1.5 sets
Open on Xexpected 63% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 23:23 · 6 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·
Jenson Brooksby
2:1
Lorenzo Sonego
Jenson Brooksby to win
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 23:20 · 28 h before start
Lost
WTA 500 · Korea Open, Seoul·
Lanlana Tararudee
0:2
Maya Joint
Over 20.5 games
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 22:10 · 7 h before start
Lost
WTA 250 · Singapore Open·
Elise Mertens
0:2
Maja Chwalinska
Elise Mertens to win
Open on Xexpected 52% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 22:10 · 7 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Chengdu Open·
Vit Kopriva
0:2
Denis Shapovalov
Denis Shapovalov to win
Open on Xexpected 62% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 04:11 · 6 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·
Jie Cui
1:2
Adolfo Vallejo
Adolfo Vallejo −3
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 04:00 · 2 h before start
Won
ATP 250 · Hangzhou Open·
Jaime Faria
2:1
Terence Atmane
Jaime Faria to win
Open on Xexpected 74% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 00:30 · 9 min before start
odds 1.59DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Colorado Rockies
3:5
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Open on Xexpected 60% from the closing line+0.59 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 22:52 · 48 min before start
odds 1.44DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:8
Miami Marlins
Chicago Cubs to win
Open on Xexpected 66% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Sept, 22:52 · 6 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Korea Open, Seoul·
Da-Yeon Back
0:2
Maya Joint
Maya Joint to win
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:28 · 22 min before start
Lost
WTA · Sao Paulo Open·
Nadia Podoroska
2:0
Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa to win
Open on Xexpected 73% by model
Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:28 · 32 min before start
odds 1.27DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Sevilla
1:3
Barcelona
Barcelona to win
Open on Xexpected 75% from the closing line+0.27 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 18:28 · 7 h before start
odds 1.71DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
Liga MX · Liga MX: Apertura·
Monterrey
1:0
Cruz Azul
Over 2.5
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Sept, 00:12 · 2 min before start
odds 1.40DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
41:31
Detroit Lions
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line+0.40 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 05:58 · 11 h before start
odds 1.51DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
LaLiga·
Real Betis
1:0
Getafe
Real Betis to win
Open on Xexpected 63% from the closing line+0.51 u
Singleposted 17 Sept, 05:52 · 15 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Guadalajara Open Akron·
Magdalena Frech
0:2
Iva Jovic
Iva Jovic to win
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 21:27 · 2 h before start
Lost
WTA 500 · Guadalajara Open Akron·
Diane Parry
0:2
Peyton Stearns
Diane Parry to win
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 15:30 · 4 h before start
Won
WTA 500 · Guadalajara Open Akron·
Cristina Bucsa
2:0
Panna Udvardy
Cristina Bucsa to win
Open on Xexpected 55% by model
Singleposted 15 Sept, 15:30 · 3 h before start
Won
EFL Cup · EFL Cup: Round 3·
West Ham United
2:3
Fulham
Both teams to score: yes
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 10 Sept, 23:22 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Over 45.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 23:54 · 25 min before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Over 43.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 7 Sept, 19:52 · 17 min before start
odds 2.20Lost
US Open · Women's Singles·
Naomi Osaka
0:2
Elena Rybakina
Over 2.5 sets@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u