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NoleML

@MLNoles115 followersfirst pick 1 Septusually posts 3 days before start

FSU FB recruiting 22’ and 23’ / FSU alum

NFL & NCAAF
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Tipster index49.3needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
-:-
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +7.5@1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Texas Longhorns under 17.5
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 52.0%
Edge
−2.0 pp
over expectation
Graded
6
3-3 · 2 pending
ROI
-
on 2 picks with odds
Average odds
2.12
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.6-0.4-0.200.24 Sept12 Sept21 Sept30 Sept9 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
−2.0
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap2-1 · 3 graded
+11.4
67%
Match result1-1 · 2 graded
+2.4
50%
Totals0-1 · 1 graded
−50.7
0%
Team totals0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+30.4
100%
Even2-2 · 4 graded
−1.4
50%
Underdog0-1 · 1 graded
−36.9
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.891-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
2.30…3.490-1 · 1 graded
-
0%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

  • September 2026
    −5.6 pp
    2-2 · 50%
  • October 2026
    +5.3 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:46 · 3 days before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
-:-
Indiana Hoosiers
Michigan Wolverines +7.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 21 Oct, 19:46 · 3 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
-:-
Ole Miss Rebels
Texas Longhorns under 17.5
Open on Xexpected 43% by model
Singleposted 9 Oct, 19:25 · 4 h before start
odds 2.60DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles to win
Open on Xexpected 37% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 30 Sept, 13:39 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Clemson Tigers
13:41
Miami Hurricanes
Miami Hurricanes −16.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 15:41 · 3 days before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
South Carolina Gamecocks
34:41
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State Bulldogs +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 15:41 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Ole Miss Rebels
32:24
LSU Tigers
LSU Tigers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 16 Sept, 15:41 · 3 days before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
41:31
SMU Mustangs
Louisville Cardinals to win
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u
Singleposted 1 Sept, 13:51 · 3 days before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan State Spartans
30:20
Toledo Rockets
Under 49.5
Open on Xexpected 51% by model