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Lukey Totals

@LukeyTotals141 followersfirst pick 10 Octusually posts 3 h before start

CBB & CFB personality | Champion of The 2024 LRG CFB betting competition 🏆 | co-host of @lockerguys1 podcast

NFL & NCAAFHockeyBasketball
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Tipster index52.1#265 on the leaderboarddown 16 this weekdeveloping sample

Open picks 1

Games not played yet
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
-:-
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners −4.5
Hit rate
54.5%
expected 50.7%
Edge
+3.8 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 31.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
11
6-5 · 1 pending
ROI
+51.1%
on 8 picks with odds · max drawdown −1.00 u
Average odds
2.19
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W2, worst L2

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

00.20.49 Oct12 Oct15 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF6-3 · 9 graded
+17.9
67%
Hockey0-1 · 1 graded
−59.5
0%
Basketball0-1 · 1 graded
−59.3
0%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result4-2 · 6 graded
+22.0
67%
Handicap2-3 · 5 graded
−18.0
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-1 · 2 graded
−14.9
50%
Even3-4 · 7 graded
−9.1
43%
Underdog2-0 · 2 graded
+67.8
100%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-2 · 2 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.293-1 · 4 graded
-
75%
2.30…3.491-0 · 1 graded
-
100%
3.50+1-0 · 1 graded
-
100%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +3.8 pp
    6-5 · 55%
    ROI +51.1%

By league

  • NCAAF6-367%+17.9
  • NBA0-10%−59.3
  • NHL0-10%−59.5

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Picks

Singleposted 22 Oct, 14:06 · 2 days before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Mississippi State Bulldogs
-:-
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma Sooners −4.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Sam Houston State Bearkats
3:16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 22:56 · 2 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Colorado Avalanche
2:3
Dallas Stars
penalties
Colorado Avalanche to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:46 · 1 h before start
odds 2.45DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels to win
Open on Xexpected 39% from the closing line+1.45 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:46 · 5 h before start
odds 3.75DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Oklahoma Sooners
27:24
Texas Longhorns
Oklahoma Sooners to win
Open on Xexpected 25% from the closing line+2.75 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 1 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Panthers
17:21
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina Tar Heels +4
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 1 h before start
odds 1.86DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
West Virginia Mountaineers
31:52
Arizona Wildcats
West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 8 h before start
Lost
NBA · Pre-season·
Indiana Pacers
117:119
Atlanta Hawks
Indiana Pacers −7
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 5 h before start
odds 1.92DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Vanderbilt Commodores
17:52
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels −9.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.92 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 9 h before start
odds 2.00DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Penn State Nittany Lions
23:31
USC Trojans
Penn State Nittany Lions to win
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 9 h before start
odds 2.05DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Alabama Crimson Tide
17:20
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Bulldogs to win
Open on Xexpected 47% from the closing line+1.05 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 14:37 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Missouri Tigers
27:6
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies +3.5
Open on Xexpected 60% by model