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Lock In Your Wins

@LockInYourWins2K followersfirst pick 16 Octusually posts 8 h before start

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Tipster index54.6#198 on the leaderboardnewdeveloping sample

Open picks 6

Games not played yet
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks −1.5@1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics −2.5@1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −2.5@1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −7.5@1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors −8.5@1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use it
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.71
Hit rate
56.4%
expected 52.3%
Edge
+4.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 43.4%, the edge is within noise
Graded
39
22-17 · 20 pending
ROI
−15.1%
on 30 picks with odds · max drawdown −6.83 u
Average odds
1.75
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W4, worst L5

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-2-10116 Oct17 Oct19 Oct21 Oct23 Oct

By sport

Hockey7-8 · 15 graded
−13.1
47%
NFL & NCAAF5-7 · 12 graded
−6.2
42%
Basketball8-2 · 10 graded
+34.1
80%
Baseball2-0 · 2 graded
+44.3
100%
Football0-0 · 0 graded
-
-

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result9-8 · 17 graded
−6.3
53%
Handicap7-9 · 16 graded
−4.8
44%
Parlays3-0 · 3 graded
+67.2
100%
Totals3-0 · 3 graded
+47.2
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite4-4 · 8 graded
−15.2
50%
Even15-13 · 28 graded
+2.8
54%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.503-3 · 6 graded
−28.6%
50%
1.50…1.899-6 · 15 graded
+2.5%
60%
1.90…2.293-6 · 9 graded
−35.3%
33%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • October 2026
    +4.1 pp
    22-17 · 56%
    ROI −15.1%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:55 · 5 h before start
odds 1.98DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
-:-
New Orleans Pelicans
Utah Jazz −1.5
Open on Xexpected 48% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics −2.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Indiana Pacers
-:-
Dallas Mavericks
Indiana Pacers −7.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:52 · 2 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors −8.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 20:43 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
-:-
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:54 · 6 h before start
odds 1.59Pending
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Chicago Blackhawks
-:-
Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:47 · 6 h before start
odds 1.52Pending
MLB · post-season·
Milwaukee Brewers
-:-
Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.52
Open on Xexpected 63% from odds
Parlay · 3posted 23 Oct, 17:45 · 5 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
-:-
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers −10.5◷
NBA · Regular season·
Washington Wizards
-:-
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors −8.5◷
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons −5.5◷
Open on Xexpected 13% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:43 · 9 h before start
Pending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Stanford Cardinal
-:-
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Stanford Cardinal −6.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:02 · 8 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Boston Celtics
-:-
New York Knicks
Boston Celtics +4
Open on Xexpected 65% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:00 · 11 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
-:-
LA Clippers
LA Lakers −9.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 15:00 · 11 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Sacramento Kings
-:-
Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento Kings −9.5
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:53 · 8 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Virginia Cavaliers
-:-
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers −2.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:53 · 10 h before start
odds 1.91DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Wyoming Cowboys
-:-
Air Force Falcons
Air Force Falcons −5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:45 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
live
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks −1.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:45 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Orlando Magic
-:-
Minnesota Timberwolves
Orlando Magic −1.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:45 · 9 h before start
odds 1.87DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPending
NBA · Regular season·
Miami Heat
-:-
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons −1.5
Open on Xexpected 51% from the closing line
Singleposted 23 Oct, 14:45 · 11 h before start
Pending
NBA · Regular season·
Utah Jazz
-:-
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans −1.5
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:24 · 1 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −7.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.84 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:24 · 2 h before start
odds 1.56Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Seattle Kraken
5:3
Utah Mammoth
Utah Mammoth to win@1.56
Open on Xexpected 61% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 00:24 · 2 h before start
odds 1.59Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Vancouver Canucks
2:5
Detroit Red Wings
Detroit Red Wings to win@1.59
Open on Xexpected 60% from odds+0.59 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:06 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears −1.5
Open on Xexpected 44% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 21:06 · 2 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers −4.5
Open on Xexpected 57% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:05 · 8 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Appalachian State Mountaineers
34:31
James Madison Dukes
James Madison Dukes −11.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:05 · 8 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Kennesaw State Owls
6:34
Liberty Flames
Liberty Flames −9.5
Open on Xexpected 40% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:05 · 8 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Memphis Tigers
41:34
East Carolina Pirates
Memphis Tigers −10.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 22 Oct, 15:02 · 8 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Philadelphia 76ers −3.5✓
NBA · Regular season·
Philadelphia 76ers
114:106
Cleveland Cavaliers
Under 236.5✓
Open on Xexpected 35% by model
Same-game combo · 2posted 22 Oct, 15:02 · 10 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5✓
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Under 235.5✓
Open on Xexpected 37% by model
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:00 · 8 h before start
odds 1.46Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
4:1
Anaheim Ducks
New Jersey Devils to win@1.46
Open on Xexpected 65% from odds+0.46 u