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@FlashPicks_3.7K followersfirst pick 1 Augusually posts 4 h before start

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Tipster index46.1#552 on the leaderboarddown 18 this weekestablished sample

Open picks 2

Games not played yet
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Nikoloz Basilashvili
-:-
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz to win@1.67
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Flavio Cobolli
-:-
Matteo Berrettini
Flavio Cobolli to win@1.95
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 52.5%
Edge
−2.5 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 41.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
96
48-48 · 3 pending
ROI
−13.4%
on 93 picks with odds · max drawdown −15.84 u
Average odds
1.83
singles with odds
Form
streak L1 · best W5, worst L6

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-4-201 Aug23 Aug14 Sept6 Oct29 Oct

By sport

Tennis27-27 · 54 graded
−2.6
50%
Baseball10-10 · 20 graded
−4.3
50%
NFL & NCAAF6-5 · 11 graded
+3.1
55%
Football3-3 · 6 graded
+2.5
50%
Basketball2-3 · 5 graded
−13.6
40%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result36-32 · 68 graded
+0.2
53%
Handicap8-11 · 19 graded
−11.5
42%
Parlays0-4 · 4 graded
−42.4
0%
Totals2-0 · 2 graded
+46.1
100%
Both teams to score1-1 · 2 graded
−1.8
50%
Double chance1-0 · 1 graded
+44.3
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite3-4 · 7 graded
−21.8
43%
Even44-36 · 80 graded
+1.9
55%
Underdog1-4 · 5 graded
−14.5
20%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.501-1 · 2 graded
-
50%
1.50…1.8932-30 · 62 graded
−11.7%
52%
1.90…2.2910-8 · 18 graded
+8.5%
56%
2.30…3.492-5 · 7 graded
−31.4%
29%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 3 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +3.1 pp
    12-10 · 55%
    ROI −2.1%
  • September 2026
    −7.2 pp
    13-16 · 45%
    ROI −19.9%
  • October 2026
    −2.3 pp
    23-22 · 51%
    ROI −14.5%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:33 · 7 h before start
odds 1.67Pending
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Nikoloz Basilashvili
-:-
Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds
Singleposted 29 Oct, 06:27 · 13 h before start
odds 1.95Pending
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Flavio Cobolli
-:-
Matteo Berrettini
Flavio Cobolli to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 28 Oct, 22:40 · 1 h before start
odds 1.66Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
114:119
Golden State Warriors
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:04 · 4 h before start
odds 1.87Won
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Learner Tien
0:2
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 15:04 · 4 h before start
odds 2.00Won
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Learner Tien
0:2
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur +1.5 sets@2.00
Open on Xexpected 48% from odds+1.00 u
Singleposted 28 Oct, 04:35 · 12 h before start
odds 1.65Lost
ATP 500 · Erste Bank Open (Vienna)·
Jakub Mensik
0:2
Adrian Mannarino
Jakub Mensik −1.5 sets@1.65
Open on Xexpected 58% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 05:24 · 15 h before start
odds 1.71Won
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Stan Wawrinka
0:2
Jiri Lehecka
Jiri Lehecka −1.5 sets@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 27 Oct, 05:22 · 4 h before start
odds 1.80Void
ATP 500 · Swiss Indoors Basel·
Hubert Hurkacz
void
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils −1.5 sets@1.80
Open on Xexpected 53% from odds
Singleposted 25 Oct, 22:50 · 10 min before start
odds 1.87Won
NBA · Regular season·
Minnesota Timberwolves
117:94
Toronto Raptors
Minnesota Timberwolves to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.87 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 15:16 · 2 h before start
odds 1.69Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Baltimore Ravens
13:35
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati Bengals to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.69 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 06:58 · 15 h before start
odds 1.71Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Charlotte Hornets
115:110
Miami Heat
Miami Heat −1.5@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Oct, 00:56 · 1 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Golden State Warriors
108:111
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5
Open on Xexpected 54% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 18:09 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NBA · Regular season·
Milwaukee Bucks
125:132
Chicago Bulls
Milwaukee Bucks to win@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:19 · 9 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +3.5@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:19 · 9 h before start
odds 2.35Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots to win@2.35
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Oct, 15:53 · 32 h before start
odds 1.66Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
New England Patriots +10.5@1.66
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds+0.66 u
Singleposted 20 Oct, 03:33 · 15 h before start
odds 1.67Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open·
Matteo Berrettini
0:2
Kyrian Jacquet
Matteo Berrettini to win@1.67
Open on Xexpected 57% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 21:39 · 2 h before start
odds 1.71Won
MLB · post-season·
Tampa Bay Rays
7:3
Cleveland Guardians
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 23:32 · 47 min before start
odds 1.88Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
23:13
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys to win@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 16:03 · 56 min before start
odds 1.88Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Atlanta Falcons
23:31
Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears to win@1.88
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds+0.88 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:37 · 22 min before start
odds 1.89Lost
ATP 250 · Lyon Open: Qualification·
Jan Kumstat
1:2
Michael Mmoh
Jan Kumstat to win@1.89
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 05:20 · 49 min before start
odds 1.93Won
ATP 250 · Almaty Open: Qualification·
Gabriel Diallo
1:2
Rei Sakamoto
Rei Sakamoto to win@1.93
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds+0.93 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 03:36 · 17 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.83 u
Parlay · 3posted 17 Oct, 06:33 · 13 h before start
odds 1.78Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win✕
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
BYU Cougars
28:24
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Under 56.5✓
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Tennessee Volunteers
26:10
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama Crimson Tide to win✕
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 16 Oct, 19:19 · 5 h before start
odds 1.95Void
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
void
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@1.95
Open on Xexpected 49% from odds
Singleposted 15 Oct, 22:57 · 1 h before start
odds 1.69Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
4:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers to win@1.69
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:36 · 7 h before start
odds 1.77Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur +3.5@1.77
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 03:36 · 7 h before start
odds 2.80Lost
ATP 1000 · Shanghai Rolex Masters·
Alexander Zverev
2:0
Alex de Minaur
Alex de Minaur to win@2.80
Open on Xexpected 34% from odds−1.00 u
Same-game combo · 2posted 14 Oct, 18:58 · 5 h before start
odds 1.80Lost
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers under 6.5@1.80✓
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5@1.80✕
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 18:50 · 9 min before start
odds 1.71Won
Champions League · League Stage·
AS Roma
3:4
Real Madrid
Real Madrid or draw@1.71
Open on Xexpected 56% from odds+0.71 u