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The Outdoor Wagers

@Dutch4public346 followersfirst pick 17 Oct

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NFL & NCAAF
Tipster index49.3needs 10+ graded picksbuilding history
Hit rate
50.0%
expected 55.5%
Edge
−5.5 pp
over expectation
Graded
2
1-1
ROI
-
posts no odds
Average odds
-
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W1, worst L1

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-0.1-0.1-0.1016 Oct17 Oct

By sport

NFL & NCAAF1-1 · 2 graded
−5.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Handicap1-1 · 2 graded
−5.5
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite1-0 · 1 graded
+30.4
100%
Even0-1 · 1 graded
−41.3
0%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By month

  • October 2026
    −5.5 pp
    1-1 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:45 · 1 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Baylor Bears
6:17
TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor Bears −5.5
Open on Xexpected 41% by model
Singleposted 17 Oct, 21:45 · 2 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Houston Cougars
35:32
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Cowboys +4.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model