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₿randon Ⓜ️ongan 🇺🇲🗽

@BrandonMongan107 followersfirst pick 29 Septusually posts 8 h before start

📈 Daily market news & trade ideas 📉 ⚾ Simulated AI sports picks built on pro probability models 🏈 🏀 INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

HockeyNFL & NCAAFBaseballBasketballFootball
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Tipster index62.2#65 on the leaderboardup 19 this weekdeveloping sample
Hit rate
56.5%
expected 42.4%
Edge
+14.1 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 39.8%, the edge is within noise
Graded
23
13-10
ROI
+54.9%
on 20 picks with odds · max drawdown −2.00 u
Average odds
2.69
singles with odds
Form
streak W1 · best W3, worst L3

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

012329 Sept6 Oct12 Oct19 Oct26 Oct

By sport

Hockey5-5 · 10 graded
+8.2
50%
NFL & NCAAF3-3 · 6 graded
+4.1
50%
Baseball3-2 · 5 graded
+19.9
60%
Football1-0 · 1 graded
+86.7
100%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+31.9
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result11-8 · 19 graded
+19.0
58%
Handicap2-2 · 4 graded
−9.3
50%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite2-1 · 3 graded
+0.3
67%
Even7-5 · 12 graded
+14.6
58%
Underdog4-4 · 8 graded
+18.5
50%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

1.50…1.890-1 · 1 graded
-
0%
1.90…2.295-4 · 9 graded
+22.8%
56%
2.30…3.495-3 · 8 graded
+59.6%
63%
3.50+1-1 · 2 graded
-
50%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 1 of 1 months with 5+ picks
  • September 2026
    +63.9 pp
    1-0 · 100%
  • October 2026
    +11.8 pp
    12-10 · 55%
    ROI +49.1%

By league

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₿randon Ⓜ️ongan 🇺🇲🗽 (@BrandonMongan) on BetBuddyRank
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Picks

Singleposted 25 Oct, 13:40 · 8 h before start
odds 2.65Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Dallas Stars
6:3
New York Islanders
New York Islanders to win@2.65
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 13:40 · 10 h before start
odds 2.94Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Nashville Predators
6:2
Colorado Avalanche
Nashville Predators to win@2.94
Open on Xexpected 32% from odds+1.94 u
Singleposted 25 Oct, 13:40 · 9 h before start
odds 2.03Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:2
Montreal Canadiens
Winnipeg Jets to win@2.03
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:11 · 9 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
LA Lakers
125:117
LA Clippers
LA Lakers +19.5
Open on Xexpected 68% by model
Singleposted 23 Oct, 17:11 · 1 h before start
odds 7.15Won
Bundesliga·
VfB Stuttgart
2:3
Borussia M'gladbach
Borussia M'gladbach to win@7.15
Open on Xexpected 13% from odds+6.15 u
Singleposted 19 Oct, 13:56 · 10 h before start
odds 4.50Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
San Francisco 49ers
23:17
Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders to win@4.50
Open on Xexpected 21% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:08 · 7 h before start
odds 2.15Lost
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
1:3
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win@2.15
Open on Xexpected 44% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 18 Oct, 14:08 · 6 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Las Vegas Raiders
30:33
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills +15.8
Open on Xexpected 61% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 16:46 · 7 h before start
odds 2.26Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Denver Broncos to win@2.26
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds+1.26 u
Singleposted 14 Oct, 16:10 · 8 h before start
odds 2.50Won
MLB · post-season·
Los Angeles Dodgers
2:6
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers to win@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds+1.50 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 18:01 · 6 h before start
odds 2.50Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
34:37
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Rams −3.5@2.50
Open on Xexpected 38% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Oct, 15:27 · 8 h before start
odds 2.14Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
New Jersey Devils
1:4
Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators to win@2.14
Open on Xexpected 45% from odds+1.14 u
Singleposted 10 Oct, 17:18 · 6 h before start
odds 2.31Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Pittsburgh Penguins
2:1
Dallas Stars
penalties
Pittsburgh Penguins to win@2.31
Open on Xexpected 41% from odds+1.31 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.23Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Detroit Red Wings
3:6
Seattle Kraken
Seattle Kraken to win@2.23
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.23 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:00 · 9 h before start
odds 2.22Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Washington Capitals
3:1
New York Rangers
New York Rangers to win@2.22
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 14:00 · 10 h before start
odds 1.83Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Winnipeg Jets
1:5
Anaheim Ducks
Winnipeg Jets to win@1.83
Open on Xexpected 52% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 13:40 · 9 h before start
Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Louisville Cardinals
44:20
Florida State Seminoles
Florida State Seminoles +7.5
Open on Xexpected 70% by model
Singleposted 8 Oct, 17:07 · 8 h before start
odds 2.60Lost
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Calgary Flames
3:7
Colorado Avalanche
Calgary Flames to win@2.60
Open on Xexpected 37% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 16:00 · 6 h before start
odds 2.26Lost
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
1:4
Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves to win@2.26
Open on Xexpected 42% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 7 Oct, 16:00 · 8 h before start
odds 2.38Won
MLB · post-season·
New York Yankees
3:4
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays to win@2.38
Open on Xexpected 40% from odds+1.38 u
Singleposted 2 Oct, 17:25 · 6 h before start
odds 2.22Won
NHL · NHL: Regular season·
Carolina Hurricanes
2:5
Washington Capitals
Washington Capitals to win@2.22
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.22 u
Singleposted 1 Oct, 16:35 · 8 h before start
odds 2.20Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cleveland Browns
27:24
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns to win@2.20
Open on Xexpected 43% from odds+1.20 u
Singleposted 29 Sept, 22:33 · 19 h before start
odds 2.64Won
MLB · post-season·
Atlanta Braves
3:4
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies to win@2.64
Open on Xexpected 36% from odds+1.64 u