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The Betting Bureau

@BettingBureaus56 followersfirst pick 26 Augusually posts 5 h before start

📊 Data-driven sports betting 📈 Odds • Trends • Props • Analytics 🎯 Finding value in the sports betting market 💰24-6 Best Bet record 2026

BaseballNFL & NCAAFTennisBasketball
CompareRSS
Tipster index58.1#147 on the leaderboarddown 25 this weekestablished sample
Hit rate
61.9%
expected 55.9%
Edge
+6.0 pp
95% lower bound of the hit rate: 51.6%, the edge is within noise
Graded
64
39-24-1
ROI
+4.4%
on 50 picks with odds · max drawdown −4.19 u
Average odds
1.77
singles with odds
Form
streak L3 · best W11, worst L4

Wins above expectation

Running difference between actual and expected wins. Rising means beating the market.

-202425 Aug11 Sept29 Sept16 Oct2 Nov

By sport

Baseball20-14 · 34 graded
+3.0
59%
NFL & NCAAF15-10-1 · 26 graded
+4.1
60%
Tennis3-0 · 3 graded
+42.8
100%
Basketball1-0 · 1 graded
+44.1
100%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By market

Match result19-13 · 32 graded
+1.9
59%
Handicap13-6-1 · 20 graded
+15.1
68%
Totals7-5 · 12 graded
+2.5
58%

Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

Favourites and underdogs

Favourite12-4 · 16 graded
+6.8
75%
Even27-20-1 · 48 graded
+5.7
57%

Singles by their expected chance to win (from the no-vig odds or the Elo rating): favourite 60% or more, even 40-60%, underdog under 40%. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: edge in pp.

By odds

< 1.505-1 · 6 graded
+9.0%
83%
1.50…1.8918-10-1 · 29 graded
+10.1%
64%
1.90…2.297-8 · 15 graded
−8.4%
47%

Singles with a price: the one in the post or the DraftKings closing line. Bar: hit rate, tick: expected hit rate. Right: ROI at 1 unit per pick (from 5 picks).

By month

Hit rate above expectation in 2 of 4 months with 5+ picks
  • August 2026
    +12.1 pp
    15-7 · 68%
    ROI +7.6%
  • September 2026
    −1.2 pp
    15-12-1 · 56%
    ROI −0.7%
  • October 2026
    +23.1 pp
    6-2 · 75%
    ROI +54.5%
  • November 2026
    −6.7 pp
    3-3 · 50%

By league

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Picks

Singleposted 1 Nov, 23:44 · 2 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:10
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 40.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 14:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.84DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Detroit Lions
19:15
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings +3.5
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 14:56 · 3 h before start
odds 1.95DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Pittsburgh Steelers
27:6
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns +3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 1 Nov, 14:56 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
New York Jets
33:38
Las Vegas Raiders
Over 45.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 1 Nov, 14:56 · 3 h before start
Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Cincinnati Bengals
43:36
Tennessee Titans
Over 46.5
Open on Xexpected 64% by model
Singleposted 1 Nov, 14:55 · 3 h before start
odds 1.61DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Buffalo Bills
36:10
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills to win
Open on Xexpected 59% from the closing line+0.61 u
Singleposted 29 Oct, 13:52 · 10 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
27:19
Carolina Panthers
Green Bay Packers −3.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:51 · 8 h before start
odds 1.81DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Chicago Bears
30:24
New England Patriots
Over 50.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line+0.81 u
Singleposted 22 Oct, 15:50 · 10 h before start
Won
NBA · Regular season·
Oklahoma City Thunder
96:84
Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder −8.5
Open on Xexpected 56% by model
Singleposted 18 Oct, 15:33 · 1 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
New England Patriots
26:19
New York Jets
Under 43.5
Open on Xexpected 53% by model
Singleposted 15 Oct, 21:32 · 3 h before start
odds 1.91Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Denver Broncos
17:14
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks −2.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 15 Oct, 15:37 · 1 h before start
odds 1.74Won
MLB · post-season·
Cleveland Guardians
3:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Guardians to win@1.74
Open on Xexpected 55% from odds+0.74 u
Singleposted 11 Oct, 15:27 · 2 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NFL · Regular Season·
Washington Commanders
27:27
New York Giants
New York Giants +3.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 9 Oct, 17:36 · 7 h before start
odds 1.91Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
San Jose State Spartans
13:16
Wyoming Cowboys
Under 42.5@1.91
Open on Xexpected 50% from odds+0.91 u
Singleposted 25 Sept, 12:32 · 10 h before start
Lost
MLB·
Philadelphia Phillies
0:2
Tampa Bay Rays
Over 6
Open on Xexpected 76% by model
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:53 · 7 h before start
odds 1.42DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
NFL · Regular Season·
Green Bay Packers
14:35
Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers to win
Open on Xexpected 68% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 24 Sept, 16:51 · 6 h before start
odds 1.67DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
6:4
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 57% from the closing line+0.67 u
Singleposted 23 Sept, 12:37 · 11 h before start
odds 1.82DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itLost
MLB·
Chicago Cubs
2:3
Miami Marlins
Over 6.5
Open on Xexpected 53% from the closing line−1.00 u
Singleposted 21 Sept, 20:25 · 5 h before start
odds 1.87Lost
MLB·
San Francisco Giants
5:2
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins to win@1.87
Open on Xexpected 51% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 19 Sept, 22:25 · 1 h before start
Won
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Colorado State Rams
23:41
BYU Cougars
BYU Cougars −3.5
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 17:39 · 7 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Kansas City Chiefs
31:10
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos +3
Open on Xexpected 59% by model
Singleposted 14 Sept, 17:31 · 6 h before start
odds 1.54DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Toronto Blue Jays
5:6
Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers +1.5
Open on Xexpected 62% from the closing line+0.54 u
Singleposted 14 Sept, 17:31 · 6 h before start
odds 1.75DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
Minnesota Twins
3:8
New York Yankees
New York Yankees to win
Open on Xexpected 55% from the closing line+0.75 u
Singleposted 13 Sept, 02:05 · 15 h before start
odds 1.21DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NFL · Regular Season·
Jacksonville Jaguars
34:10
Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Open on Xexpected 79% from the closing line+0.21 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 13:35 · 10 h before start
odds 2.05Lost
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Texas Longhorns
24:23
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State Buckeyes to win@2.05
Open on Xexpected 47% from odds−1.00 u
Singleposted 12 Sept, 13:34 · 2 h before start
odds 1.90DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
NCAAF · NCAAF: Regular Season·
Michigan Wolverines
17:10
Oklahoma Sooners
Michigan Wolverines +5.5
Open on Xexpected 50% from the closing line+0.90 u
Singleposted 10 Sept, 18:45 · 6 h before start
Lost
NFL · Regular Season·
Los Angeles Rams
7:27
San Francisco 49ers
Los Angeles Rams −3
Open on Xexpected 49% by model
Singleposted 9 Sept, 19:23 · 5 h before start
odds 1.83DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itPush
NFL · Regular Season·
Seattle Seahawks
13:10
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks −3
Open on Xexpected 52% from the closing line+0.00 u
Singleposted 9 Sept, 19:21 · 4 h before start
odds 1.76Won
MLB·
Milwaukee Brewers
8:6
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers to win@1.76
Open on Xexpected 54% from odds+0.76 u
Singleposted 8 Sept, 15:01 · 8 h before start
odds 1.64DK: No odds in the post: DraftKings price (the closing line, the current one before kick-off). Expectation and ROI use itWon
MLB·
New York Yankees
5:3
Colorado Rockies
New York Yankees −1.5
Open on Xexpected 58% from the closing line+0.64 u